報告書番号

Y99018

タイトル（和文）

2025年までの経済社会・エネルギーの長期展望

タイトル（英文）

The Long-Term Outlook for the Japanese Economy, Society and Energy

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

当所の長期経済予測システムを使った、2025年までの展望結果は以下の通りである。高齢社会の到来や財政再建などから、低成長の時代を迎える。実質経済成長率は、2000～2025年間では平均1.5％程度にとどまる。成長率は人口減少が加速する後半の方が低くなる。高度情報化や高齢化などから、通信・放送、電機、医療などが3～5％の増加となり、産業構造が大きく変わる。エネルギー需要は2020年頃にピークを迎え、減少傾向に転じる。そうした中、経済のサービス化や情報化などから、電力需要は底堅い伸びをみせる。CO2排出量は、エネルギー需要を反映して、2010年には90年比13％の増加となる見込みである。各地域とも、遅くとも2015年までには人口減少局面に入る。実質生産額の伸びは北関東、首都圏、中部、関西が全国平均を上回り、地域格差はやや拡大する。事業経営の面では構造変化と低成長の時代への対応が必要となる。

概要 （英文）

The purpose of this report is to present the results of comprehensive outlook of Japanese economy and energy markets towards the year 2025 using CRIEPI Long-range Socio-economic and Energy Forecasting System. The main results are as follows: The average annual growth rate of GDP in the next 25 years will be 1.5% due to tight government expenditure, depopulation effect and increased share of import. Unemployment, deflationary gap and government debts, which are the major unbalances the Japanese economy faces in the year 2000, will be better off gradually. However, the huge surplus in balance-of-payments will remain until around the year 2020. The service sector will always dominate over manufacturing sector in production growth. Driven by rapid change towards aging, health-care and medical expenditures will continuously expand. The value added share of tertiary industry will reach 61% in the year 2025 due to the growth of telecommunication, broadcast and health-care sectors. Given this trend, it is necessary to shift the employment of manufacturing and construction industries to high-tech tertiary industries, which requires retraining of workers. The demand for energy will reach its peak in the year 2020. However, the demand for electricity will grow continuously. Thus, the share of electricity in primary energy demand will increase and reach to 48 percent in the year 2025. The residential and commercial sectors are the main factors in the increase of electricity demand. The emission of CO2 in the year 2010 will be 325 million tons of carbon, which is about 113% of their 1990 level. Thus, it is a hard task to achieve the emission level of greenhouse effect gas, to which Japan was committed in COP3. As the Japanese economy moves to a stock driven economy with a low growth, the concentration of economic activities in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area will continue, slightly enlarging the regional income disparity.

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