報告書番号

Y99015

タイトル（和文）

中国の長期エネルギー環境戦略 -CPEモデルによる「経済改革シナリオ」の分析-

タイトル（英文）

Long Term Energy and Enviromental Strategy for China: Analysis of Economic Reform Scenario by CPE model

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

中国が経済改革に成功し2030年まで高い経済成長を持続する場合のエネルギー需給と大気汚染問題についてモデル分析した。中国に石炭は多く賦存するが、他エネルギーは乏しい。高い経済成長を維持する場合には、現在の効率が低く石炭中心のエネルギーシステムは変化し、効率が高く、液体・気体が増加する。エネルギー供給投資の対象は、石炭増産などの既存構造の比例的拡大よりも、供給の液体気体などへの質的転換が大きい。機器の効率は悪く改善を必要とするが、他方で省エネと直接は関係ない経済改革が、マクロなエネルギー消費削減のためにも大きく寄与する。これらにより、石炭増産なき高度経済成長という道がありうる。現在の先進国で商用化されていない最新技術を導入する必要はない。気候変動対策については「２段階の後発性利用戦略」を提言した。

概要 （英文）

Long term energy and emissions scenario is analyzed using China Provincial Energy and Emissions (CPE) model. While the earlier scenario, named Japan Analog Scenarios, had purposely high energy consumption in order to see the possible range of impacts, the scenario for this fiscal year, named “Economic Reform Scenario (ERS)”, is developed to see the most likely development pattern of energy systems and emissions compatible with successful economic growth at average 7% per year up to the year 2030. Major findings are as follows:1)China, except for coal, will be in short of energy resources in general, while coal consumption will be limited to centralized large-scale combustion in accordance with modernization of economy. A high economic growth within this endowment will be necessarily associated with rapid change in energy systems marked currently by inefficiency and disproportionate coal-intensity. The energy systems will be more efficient and more intensive in liquid and gas as final energy career. ERS, which incorporates such a change, results in remarkably low energy elasticity of 0.2 on average from 2000 to 2030.2)ERS exhibits rather slow increase in total energy supply due to the rapid reduction in energy intensity, but the content of energy supply will significantly change. Target of investments will be much less upon proportional expansion of existing energy systems such as extensive coal production than upon qualitative change in energy supply systems such as energy imports and shift to other energy than coal in accordance with the modernization of energy demand sector.3)Wide gap in energy intensity between China and developed countries is analyzed. Now energy efficiency of China’s facilities and equipment are typically less efficient than that of Japan and other developed countries by 30% to 100% in terms of energy consumption per unit output hence they need to be improved. Still, they are only a part of the wide gap in energy intensity as much as 500% between China and Japan. Economic reform, production management, and quality control are necessary to improve it. While these are not usually categorized as measures for energy conservation, they are priority agenda not only for economic development but also definitely for macroscopic energy conservation and deserve more attention as such. 4)Coal consumption will stagnate in future in ERS for two reasons. First, energy intensity, which is currently disproportionately high, will be rapidly improved. Secondly, energy demand structure will shift to energy use other than coal. The result illustrates that high and sustained economic growth without increase in coal production is feasible for China.5)It is not necessary to introduce innovative technologies that are not commercialized in current developed countries for both energy and environment. Those technologies that have already diffused in the developed countries can envisage rapid improvement in energy intensity and environmental quality as the feasibility is assured by ERS. What is required is to improve political, administrative and economic system in order to make full use of these technologies.6)The climate mitigation strategy for China is proposed: “Strategy to take two steps of followers advantage”. In the first phase, China will pursue energy intensity improvement such as shown in ERS for a couple of decades. This is also necessary to fulfill China’s other national goals. During this phase, developed countries will take lead to establish technological and institutional measures in climate mitigation. In the second phase after 2020 or 2030, China initiate full-scale climate mitigation by transferring the measures from developed countries. This strategy is compatible with the existence of time flexibility, an important characteristic of atmospheric science of climate change.

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