報告書番号

Y99006

タイトル（和文）

地域別電力需要モデルの開発とシミュレーション　－少子・高齢化時代の電灯需要分析－

タイトル（英文）

Development of Regional Electricity Demand Model“Effects of Declining and Aging Population on Residential Electricity Demand”

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

当所が開発した10地域計量経済モデル(10REM)と連携可能な「地域別電力需要モデル」を構築する。これによって、電灯、業務用、小口、大口、その他の5用途別に、大口電力はさらに4産業別に分割して、10地域別の電力需要を分析する。特に、電灯需要については、さらに詳しく県別データを用いて、少子・高齢化の影響を明らかにする。分析結果をみると、中長期的には地域別の電力需要、販売電力収入額の伸びは鈍化する公算が大きく、また、少子・高齢化の電灯需要への影響については、今後10数年間では地域差をもたらす要因となる予想される。

概要 （英文）

This paper reports the results of simulation analyses using regional electricity demand model. The electricity demand is explained by income and price. The production is used instead of income for industrial electricity demand. Considering the annual climate fluctuation, the degree-day index is introduced. Using other models to obtain the preconditions of national and regional economic environments, the outlooks of electricity demand can be calculated. Although the electricity demands for commercial and machinery manufacturing industry show the high increase rate, the increase rate of total demand become much smaller than 1990s. The sensitivity analysis of electricity price shows that the increase in electricity induces the increase in revenue. It implies that the price elasticities of residential and commercial electricity demands are relatively small, so that the increase in price does not decrease the electricity demand much. The later part of this paper examines the effect of declining and aging population on residential electricity demand. Certainly declining population has a decreasing effect on residential electricity demand, but the increase in number of household has a positive effect on electricity demand. Increasing rate of aged population also has a positive effect on electricity demand in a sense of safety. Although some prefectures loose the electricity demands when the prefectural population and number of household change to expected levels in 2020, Japanese total demand increases about 7%.

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