報告書番号

Y98015

タイトル（和文）

財政政策の短期マクロ経済･産業別効果 -－政府支出乗数の80年代、90年代の比較を中心に－-

タイトル（英文）

Short-term Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Fiscal Policy in Japan--Assessment of the Fiscal Multipliers in the 90's & 80's--

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

電中研マクロモデル98(90年代モデル)、同時に開発した80年代モデル、産業連関モデルを用いて財政政策効果の90年代と80年代との変化を需要面などのマクロ経済面、産業別波及面などから総合的に検証した。その結果、90年代に入っても政府支出乗数、所得減税乗数ともさほど低下していないこと、産業別波及効果については、政府支出追加は建設、製造業中心であるのに対して、所得税減税は第三次産業を含め広範な業種に効果があるものの効果発動までラグがあること、政府支出追加の90年代の効果については、素材産業への波及効果が80年代に比べて小さくなっていること、などが判明した。

概要 （英文）

This report shows the assessment of the change of fiscal multipliers in 90's and 80's in Japanese economy. We used the revised new CRIEPI quarterly econometric model(MODEL98) and SNA-based Input-Output Model consisted of 89 industries. The results are as follows:(1)Fiscal multiplier in the 90's has not been decreased than that of 80's. They are 1.29 for the first year, 1.69 for the second and 2.21 for the third(△nominal GDP/△nominal public fixed investment; 1.26, 1.99, 2.88 each in the 80's). Although it has been decreased in the second and the third years, almost the same in the first year. We have decreased propensity to consume and increased import leakage, but neutral movement of exchange rate in the 90's etc. offset their reducing effect to the multiplier. (2)Income tax cut effect has not been lowered in the 90's than in the 80's as in the case of increased government expenditure. (3)Fiscal balance in both cases has deteriorated in the 90's. We should not expect sufficient tax increase from fiscal stimuli.(4)Comparing these policy effects on each industrial sector, additional public investment mainly increases production in construction and manufacturing sectors. On the other hand, reduction of income tax influences activities in the far and wide sectors including the tertiary industries. Impacts on the material manufacturing industries in the 90's have been reduced compared with those in the 80's, whereas those on the tertiary industries have been increased. The above shows that we could expect short-run stimulating effects of the fiscal policies in the recession period. In the policy discussion, much more attention should be payed to these results, including the bias of the sectoral effects and the extent of the increase of government saving.

報告者

キーワード