報告書番号

Y98002

タイトル（和文）

自動車買替サイクルの長期化が国内経済に与える影響についてマクロ経済・産業連関モデルによる評価

タイトル（英文）

HOW EXTENDING MOTOR VEHICLE S REPLACEMENT CYCLE AFFECTS JAPANESE ECONOMY? -AN IMPACT ASSESSMENT USING MACROECONOMETRIC AND INPUT-OUTPUT SIMULATIONS-

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

国内産業の成長をリードし続けてきた自動車産業を取り巻く環境は大きな変貌を遂げている。国内自動車市場の成熟化はその顕著な例であり，自動車普及率が既に高水準に達していることや将来人口の減少が予想されることなどからこれまでのような新規需要の大きな伸びは期待できず，今後は買替需要が国内需要の主要な柱となるだろう。本稿では電中研マクロ経済・産業連関モデルを用いて，自動車の買替サイクルが一年伸びることによる買替需要の減少とその経済的影響を試算する。買替サイクルの一年長期化は，乗用車の買替需要を７．８％，トラックの買替需要を１８．９％減少させ，国内産業の生産を付加価値ベースで２．６兆円減少させる。産業別では自動車産業は３８１０億円，卸・小売産業が６６６０億円の付加価値額を減少させ，電力では４７０億円の付加価値が減少する。９０年以来成長率が鈍化している現状と考え合わせると，この影響は大きい。

概要 （英文）

THE MOTOR VEHICLE INDUSTRY, WHICH HAS INSPIRED DOMESTIC PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES SINCE THE 1960=S, IS COMING UP AGAINST INEVITABLE CHANGES. ONE OF THE TYPICAL PHENOMENA IS THAT THE DOMESTICMOTOR VEHICLE MARKET IS GETTING RIPE. SINCE ALMOST 80 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS IN OUR COUNTRY ALREADY HAVE AT LEAST ONE MOTOR VEHICLE AND THE POPULATION IS GOING TO REDUCE, IT ISN=T EXPECTED THAT THE NEWLY CAR DEMAND WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS IT DID BEFORE THE END OF 1980 S. IT IS STRONGLY PREDICTED THAT PURCHASE OF CARS MOTIVATED MAINLY FOR REPLACEMENT ISGOING TO TAKE A LEADING PART OF DOMESTIC SALES. IN THIS PAPER, WE CALCULATE THE IMPACTS OF EXTENDING MOTOR VEHICLE=S REPLACEMENT CYCLES, AS ONE ASPECT OF MATURATION OF THE DOMESTIC MOTOR VEHICLE MARKET, ON JAPANESE ECONOMY. REDUCTION OF NEW CAR DEMANDS AFFECTS PRODUCTION NOT ONLY INTHE MOTOR VEHICLE INDUSTRY, BUT ALSO IN THE VARIOUS INDUSTRIES. IT IS BECAUSE MOTOR VEHICLES ARE MANUFACTURED GOODS THOSE NEED MANY STEP OF PRODUCTION BY THE TIME OF PURCHASE. USING CRIEPI=S MACROECONOMETRIC AND INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS, WE CLARIFIED THAT RETRENCHMENT OF CAR REPLACEMENT WOULD DECREASE 2.6 TRILLION YEN OF TOTAL INDUSTRY OUTPUT IN 1990 CONSTANT PRICE VALUE ADDED TERMS. THE LOSS OF OUTPUT IN THE MOTOR VEHICLE INDUSTRY WOULD BE 381 BILLION YEN, AND IN THE RETAIL AND WHOLESALE SECTOR IT WOULD AMOUNT TO 666 BILLION YEN. ALSO, ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY WOULDLOSE 47 BILLION YEN S TAKINGS. CONSIDERING LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SINCE 1990, THIS IMPACT COULD HAVE A GREAT INFLUENCE ON OUR PROSPECTIVE GROWING PROCESS.

報告者

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