報告書番号

Y96013

タイトル（和文）

電気事業の規制緩和と原子力発電

タイトル（英文）

DEREGULATION POLICIES AND NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本稿は，電力市場への競争導入が原子力発電に及ぼす影響とその促進のための手段について検討し，どのような市場自由化モデルの下で新規原子力発電の開発が可能であるかどうかについて明らかにしたものである。その結果，プール・モデルのように電力市場に直接な電源間の競争が導入されると，高い資本コストや不確実なバックエンド・コストなど原子力に固有な投資リスクが顕在化し，原子力プラントの新設は困難であること，競争導入と長期的な電源開発計画も調和させることのできる自由化モデルとしては，新規電源の競争入札とそのバリエーションであるシングルバイヤー・システムであることなどが明らかにされた。

概要 （英文）

THIS PAPER INVESTIGATES THE IMPACTS OF INTRODUCTION OF COMPETITION IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKET ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER, AND COUTERMEASURES TO RECONCILE STEADY NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF COMPETITION. THE MAJOR RESULTS ARE: (1)AS AN INVESTMENT THEORY, THE OPTION VALUE PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE INVESTMENT DECISION OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS. TO AVOID A MISTAKE IN IMVESTMENT AND TO SECURE FLEXIBILITY OF INVESTMENT DECISION, A SMALLER GAS POWER PLANT IS BETTER THAN A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT WITH ITS HIGH INVESTMENT COSTS AND LONG-TERM FIXED CAPITAL. THEREFORE, THERE ARE STRONG ARGUMENTS THAT NEW INVESTMENT IN NUCLEAR ENERGY WILL NOT OCCUR IN A STRONG COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT. (2)FOR EXISTING PLANTS, THERE IS SMALL RISKFOR STRANDED INVESTMENT. IN A POOL SYSTEM, NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS WITH LOW VARIABLE COSTS ENTER THE MERIT LEVEL. OBVIOUSLY ,THIS IS A PARADOX:IN THE OPERATING STAGE, NUCLEAR ENERGY IS COMPETITIVE AND THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS WITH FIXED-COST COVERAGE, BUT IN A HIGHLY-COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT, MARKETS WILL OFFER NO INCENTIVES TO BUILD NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS.(3)WHEN BUILDING A NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANT, THE MAIN COST UNCERTAINTY ARISES FROM THE BACK-END OF THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE EPECIALLY THE DISPOSAL OF NUCLEAR WASTE AND DECOMMISSIONING. WITHOUT HURTING THE POLLUTER-PAYS-PRINCIPLE, THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT COULD IMPLEMENT A NATIONAL BACK-END PROGRAM AND CAN GIVE ADDITIONAL SECURITIES LIKE COST LIMITS. (4)DEREGURATION MODELS AND A SINGLE-BUYER SYSTEM(VARIATION OF COMPETITIVE BIDDING).A COMPETITIVE BIDDING MODEL PROVIDES THE BEST INSTRUMENT TO PROMOTE NUCLEAR ENERGY BECAUSE TENDERS COULD BE RESTRICTED TO NUCLEAR PLANTS. BUT PROMOTING NUCLEAR ENERGY AGAINST MARKET FORCES CREATES EXEMPTION AREAS. THUS,ANY PROMOTION OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS HAS A PRICE FOR LOST COMPETITION. THIS IS THE BASIC CONFLICT AND THE NECESSARY DECISION MUSTBE MADE BY THE NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY. (5)PROBABLY, PROMOTION OF NUCLEAR POWER IN PUBLIC OPINION IS AN IMPORT

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