報告書番号

Y96010

タイトル（和文）

民生部門の負荷平準化技術の導入効果

タイトル（英文）

EFFECTS OF INTRODUCING PEAK SHAVING TECHNOLOGIES IN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTOR FROM VIEWPOINT OF GENERATION MIX.

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本研究では，新たな負荷平準化対策として，民生部門の電気利用機器の効率化および業務用蓄熱式空調技術を考え，これらの技術の将来の普及ポテンシャルを推定すると共に，電力供給に及ぼす経済的影響について分析した。その結果，（１）経済性を有する民生部門の電気機器の効率化技術が最大限普及すれば，２０１４年度の年負荷率を１．１ポイント改善でき，それに伴って同年度の平均発電単価が０．１１￥／ｋＷｈ低減すること，（２）蓄熱式空調技術が最大限普及した場合，２０１４年度の年負荷率が１．８ポイント改善し，また発電費用も削減できること，（３）両技術を同時に最大限導入した場合，２０１４年度の年負荷率は２．５ポイント改善し，同年度の平均発電単価は０．２４￥／ｋＷｈ低減すること，（４）経済性が優れた特定の機器効率化技術に対して補助金を支出し普及を促進する場合，必要な補助金額より累積発電費用の削減額の方がはるかに多い，ことを明らかにした。

概要 （英文）

THIS STUDY INVESTIGATED THE ENGINEERING ECONOMICS OF INTRODUCING PEAK-SHAVING TECHNOLOGIES IN THE RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS. WE ANALYZED THE COST-BENEFIT OF THESE TECHNOLOGIES AS WELL AS THE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE FUTURE POWER GENERATION MIX IN JAPAN. EFFICIENT ELECTRIC APPLIANCES WERE CLASSIFIED INTO THREE CATEGORIESBASED ON INSTALLATION POTENTIAL. IT WAS FOUND THAT MAXIMUM PEAK LOAD IN 2014 CAN BE REDUCED BY 32 GW AND THE ANNUAL LOAD FACTOR INCREASES BY UP TO 55.9% WITH MAXIMUM INSTALLATION OF PEAK-SHAVING TECHNOLOGIES. GENERATING COSTS THROUGH TO 2014 ARE CUT BY 4.8 TRILLION YEN (1994 PRICES)BECAUSE OF REDUCED INVESTMENT IN ADDITIONAL POWER PLANTS. SIMILARLY, ATHERMAL-STORAGE TYPE AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM (TSS) WAS ANALYZED. IT ISEXPECTED TO BE AN EFFECTIVE DSM COUNTERMEASURE FOR ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN JAPAN. THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL IS ESTIMATED TO BE 676 MILLION SQUARE METERS IN OFFICE BUILDINGS UNTIL 2014, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF NEWLY-CONSTRUCTED OFFICE BUILDINGS. THE MAXIMUM PEAK LOAD COULD BE REDUCED BY 9 GW BY INSTALLATION OF TSS. COMBINATION OF EFFICIENT POWER TECHNOLOGIES ANDTSS COULD REDUCE GENERATING COSTS BY 4.9 TRILLION YEN (1994 PRICES) THROUGH TO 2014. A NEW SUBSIDY PROGRAM FOR EFFICIENT POWER TECHNOLOGIES WAS ALSO ANALYZED. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE REDUCTION IN TOTAL GENERATINGCOSTS THROUGH TO 2014 WOULD BE GREATER THAN THE TOTAL SUBSIDY. THIS STUDY DID NOT CONSIDER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION COSTS, AS WELL AS REVENUE LOSSES INDUCED BY THE DSM PROGRAM, AND A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT IS NEEDED FOR PROPER ASSESSMENT OF THEPROGRAM.

報告者

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