報告書番号

Y95009

タイトル（和文）

石油を中心とする化石エネルギーの枯渇評価

タイトル（英文）

OIL AND FOSSIL ENERGY DEPLETION

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

現代の産業社会は大量のエネルギー消費で支えられている。中でも“アラジンの魔法のランプ”とまで言われる石油は，経済の発展と私たちの生活を快適にするのに不可欠なエネルギー源となっている。本研究は，石油を中心とした化石燃料資源について，その利用可能な期間を，将来の人口増によるエネルギー需要を考慮して予測したものである。もし原子力や再生可能エネルギーの開発が進まなければ，良質な石油と天然ガスは２０００年初期には減産せざるを得ず，その後は合成燃料や石炭といった質の悪いエネルギーに依存していくことになる。超長期にみて世界人口が１２０億人で飽和し，世界の一人あたりのエネルギー消費を現在の値と同じとしてエネルギー需要の９０％を化石燃料で賄ったとすると，化石燃料は２２世紀中葉には供給ピークを迎えることになる。

概要 （英文）

THE CURRENT OIL PRICE IS THE SAME AS THE REAL PRICE BEFORE THE OIL EMBARGO IN 1970S,BECAUSE THE WORLD-WIDE ECONOMICRECESSION HAS EASED OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND. THE ACCORDING TO SOME REPORTS,THE FUTURE OIL PRICE SEEMS LIKELY BO BE STABLE UP TO THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY AND IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE $20 TO $37.8 A BARREL IN 2010. THE STUDY AIMS TO FORECAST THE LONG-TERM OIL SUPPLY BASED ON THE PRESENT STATE OF OIL RESERVES. (1) OIL SUPPLIES ARE UNDER NO CONSTRAINTSUP TO 2010. HOWEVER,FOR OIL COSTING LESS THAN $20 A BARREL,THE RATIO OF RESERVES TO PRODUCTION(R/P)IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING AROUND 2010WHEN HALF THE TOTAL OF LOW-COST RESERVES WILL BE DEPLETED. IF NIGHER-PRICED RECOVERABLE OIL IS INCLUDED IN THE RESERVES,THE PERIOD UNTIL THE DROP IN RIP IS EXTENDED TO AROUND 2035 WHEN THE EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF UNDISCOVERED RESERVES WILL HAVE COMPLETELY CONSUMED AT THE RECENT ANNUAL LEVEL OF OIL PRODUCTION. (2) OIL DEPENDENCE ON THE MIDDLE EAST WILL INCREASE FROM 27.5% IN 1990 TO 30% IN 2000,34% IN 2010 AND 41% IN 2020. (3) OIL DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO RISE MOST IN ASIA,WHICH HOLDS 57% OF THE WORLD S POPULATION. WHILE THE WORLD ECONOMY REMAINS IN RECESSION,MANY ASIAN ECONOMIES MAINTAIN HIGH GROWTH RATES. AS A RESULT,SOUTH KOREA,CHINA,INDONESIA AND THAILAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OIL CONSUMPTION BY AN AVERAGE OF 5%-6% ANNUALLY. ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THESE COUNTRIES WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FUTURE WORLD OIL SITUATION. THE HIGH INCREASE IN OIL CONSUMPTION IN ASIA AND INCREASING DEPENDENCE ON THE MIDDLE EAST MIGHT CAUSE AN OIL CRISIS AROUND 2010. THE CRISIS WOULD HEAVILY DAMAGE ASIAN COUNTRIES WHERE OIL SUPPLY DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE MIDDLE EAST,STANDING AT48% IN 1991 AND 65% IN 2000. (4) THE RAPID INCREASE IN WORLD POPULATION IS INCREASING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND REQUIRING LARGE AMOUNTS OF HIGH-QUALITY FOSSIL FUELS SUCH AS OIL AND NATURAL GAS. APPROXIMATELY HALF THE WORLD ENERGY DEMAND IN 2050 WILL BE SUPPLIED BY ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES SUCH AS COAL,SYNTHESIS FUELS,SOLA

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