報告書番号

Y95004

タイトル（和文）

内外価格差の実態とその縮小の影響分析

タイトル（英文）

PRICE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN DOMESTIC AND OVERSEAS MARKETS IN JAPAN --STATUS GUS AND IMPACTS ON MACRO ECONOMY WHEN REDUCED--

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

内外価格差の縮小が経済成長、雇用などマクロ経済に与える効果を電中研モデルを用いて定量的に評価した。内外価格差の縮小が短期間に進展する際には、並行して相当規模の雇用調整、産業調整を伴う可能性がある。規制緩和と低生産性部門の生産性向上を通じて日米生産性格差が半減し、内外価格差が５年間に約３割縮小した場合、物価下落は実質所得の増大を通じて内需を拡大する効果をもつが、価格調整が雇用・賃金、および分配関係にまで波及した場合、マクロ的な影響はネットでマイナスとなる。今後の経済運営にあたっては、内外価格差の縮小はデフレを加速する可能性もあるという波及効果を念頭におきつつ慎重に政策判断を行なう必要がある。

概要 （英文）

REDUCING THE PRICE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN DOMESTIC AND OVERSEAS MARKETS(PDDO) IS AN IMPORTANT POLICY ISSUE IN THE ONGONING DEREGULAITON POLICIES OF JAPAN. HOWEVER, LITTLE IS KNOWN ABOUT THE OVERALL EFFECTS OF REDUCING THE PDDO ON THE MACRO ECONOMY WHEN THEY ARE ADJUSTED. THIS REPORT PRESENTS A SURVEY OF STATUS QUO AND ASSESSES THE EFFECTS USING CRIEPI ECONOMETRIC MODELS. THE RESULTS ARE SUMMARIZEDAS FOLLOWS: (1)IN JAPAN, THE PRICE INCREASE HAS BEEN SMALL OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS WHILE THE LEVEL IN US$ TERMS WAS VERY HIGH COMPARED TO OTHER ADVANCED COUNTRIES. MOREOVER, PRICE DIFFERNTIALS BETWEEN DOMESTIC GOODS AND SERVICES ARE THE LARGEST IN THE G7 COUNTRIES. (2)THE PDDO INCREASED RAPIDLY AFTER 1986 AND WAS 1.7 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE USA LEVEL IN 1993. THE PDDO ITSELF IS NOT UNIQUE BUT THE LEVEL IS CONSPICUOUSLY HIGH IN JAPAN. (3)ABOUT 65% OF THE SECTORAL PRICE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN JAPAN AND THE USA IS DUE TO SECTORAL PRODUTIVITY DIFFERENTIALS. (4)REDUCINGTHE PDDO BY 30% IN THE SHORT TERM (WITHIN SEVERAL YEARS) WOULD REQUIRECONSIDERABLE COSTS IN TERMS OF EMPLOYMENT. OUR SIMULATION RESULTS ARE AS FOLLOWS: REAL GDP WOULD DECREASE BY 2% IN THE FIFTH YEAR COMPARED TOTHE BASE CASE, ALTHOUGH A 15% PRICE DECREASE WOULD STIMULATE HOUSING DEMAND THROUGH INCREASED REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME. EMPLOYMENT AND WAGE ADJUSTMENT WENT ON AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE COULD RISE BY ABOUT 20%. BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT INCREASE WOULD NOT OFF SETTHE DEPRESSIONARY EFFECT OF DECREASED PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AND HOUSING INVESTMENT.

報告者

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