報告書番号

Y95002

タイトル（和文）

出生率低下が経済成長に及ぼす効果の計量分析

タイトル（英文）

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF EFFECTS OF FALLING BIRTH RATE IN JAPAN ON ECONOMIC GROUWTH

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

近年，わが国の出生率は低下傾向にあるが，その重要な要因のひとつに女子労働力率の上昇が考えられる。バッツ＝ウォードモデルを適用し，両者の関係を計測した結果，有意な関係が認められた。そこで，質を考慮した労働力人口の系列を作成し，また生産関数を利用して，わが国経済への影響を計測した。その結果，出生率の低下は女子労働力供給の増加を通じて，１９９３年でおよそ３．５兆円，ＧＤＰ比で約０．８％の生産への寄与をもたらしたと推計される。一方，出生の機会的コストを計算すると１９９３年で約４３０万円となる。こうした出生率低下を通じた生産拡大効果は，累積的にみれば長続きせず，シミュレーションによれば，２０１５年頃に出生率が低下しなかった仮想的な経済の方がより高い経済パフォーマンスを有するとになる。

概要 （英文）

IN RECENT YEARS,THE JAPANESE BIRTH RATE HAS CONTINUED TO FALL MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED NUMBERS OF YOUNG WOMEN IN THELABOR FORCE. THIS STUDY ANALYZES HOW FALLING BIRTH RATES WILL AFFECT THE JAPANESE ECONOMY. BY APPLYING THE BUTZ-WARD MODEL(BUTZ AND WARD(1979))TO JAPANESE TIME-SERIES DATA,WE FOUND A SIGNIFICANT TRADE-OFF BETWEENBIRTH RATE AND LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE. ASSUMING THE PAST RELATIONSHIP OF FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY TO PAST REPRODUCTION RATE,AND A CONSTANT BIRTHRATE SINCE 1975,THE LABOR SUPPLY WOULD HAVE BEEN 770,000 LESS THAN ACTUAL FIGURES ON A QUALITY-ADJUSTED BASIS(1.05% OF TOTAL LABOR FORCE). BIRTH NUMBERS WERE ABOUT 610,000 IN 1993. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INCREASE IN YOUNG FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY INCREASED GDP BY 3.5 TRILLION YEN(0.79%)IN 1993 AT THE COST OF FALLING BIRTH RATE,AND THAT OPPORTUNITY BIRTHS COST ABOUT 4.3 MILLION YEN(ABOUT $43,000)ALMOST EQUALING THE ANNUAL INCOME OF YOUNG FEMALES IN THEIR TWENTIES PLUS THE ACTUAL BIRTH COST. HOWEVER,THIS FAVORABLE EFFECT OF INCREASING FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY ON ECONOMICGROWTH CANNOT BE SUSTAINED IN THE LONG-RUN BECAUSE OF THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF FALLING BIRTH RATE ON LABOR SUPPLY. OUR ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FALLING BIRTH RATE WILL INCREASE THE CUMULATIVE GAIN IN GDP PEAKING IN 2004,BUT BECOMING NEGATIVE IN 2015. THESE RESULTS SUGGEST THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF VARIOUS POLICIES TO ENCOURAGE WORKING WOMEN BY IMPROVING CHILD-BEARING AND CHILD-SUPPORT SYSTEMS.

報告者

キーワード