報告書番号

Y94013

タイトル（和文）

電気自動車の導入評価－ＣＯ２，ＮＯｘ排出抑制及び電源構成への影響－

タイトル（英文）

ENERGY SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES -IMPACTS ON GENERATION MIX AND EMISSION CONTROL-

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

２０１０年時点のわが国のエネルギーシステム・電源構成及びＣＯ２，ＮＯｘ排出削減の観点から，電気自動車等の代替燃料自動車導入の意義を評価するために，自動車交通部門と電力部門を一体として評価する最適化型エネルギーモデルを開発した。モデルによるシミュレーション計算の結果，以下の結論を得た。・電気自動車が日本全国大でのＣＯ２排出抑制に寄与するには，数百万台程度（普及率１０％以上）の導入が必要である。こうした大規模な導入を図る場合，副次的に電力年負荷率の改善が得られると同時に，原子力等のベースロード電源の着実な整備が必要条件となる。・自動車交通部門からのＮＯｘ削減対策としての優先度は，ガソリン車への転換，ＣＮＧ車（天然ガス車）導入に次ぐものとなる。ただし，都市部の大気汚染問題の抜本的な解決を目指すには，将来に向けて電気自動車導入が不可欠になっていくものと考えられる。

概要 （英文）

THIS REPORT DESCRIBES A LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL WHICH SIMULTANEOUSLY CALCULATES OPTIMAL PATTERNS OF POWER SUPPLY MIX AND VEHICLE MIX. THE MODEL IS USED AS AN ANALYTIC TOOL TO EVALUATE ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS FOR ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES,ESPECIALLY,ELECTRIC VEHICLES(EVS). SEVERAL SIMULATION RUNS WERE CONDUCTED FOR THE REFERENCE YEAR 2010 WITH VARIOUS SETS OF BOUNDARY CONDITIONS SUCH AS NATIONAL CARBON EMISSION CONTROL TARGETS,NOX EMISSION CONTROL TARGETSFROM VEHICLE TRANSPORT,NUCLEAR POWER AVAILABILITY,AND PROSPECTS FOR ALTERNATIVE VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY R&D. THE RESULTS ARE SUMMARIZED BELOW: 1.THE LP MODEL DEVELOPED IN THIS STUDY COVERS A POWER GENERATION SECTOR,A VEHICLE TRANSPORT SECTOR AND AN OTHER ENERGY CONSUMING SECTOR. THIS MODEL DEMONSTRATES ITSELF TO BE A USEFUL TOOL FOR EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF INTRODUCTION OF ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES IN THE JAPANESE ENERGY SYSTEM IN TERMS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION,ELECTRIC LOAD LEVELING AND GASEOUS EMISSION CONTROL. 2.TO REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS FROM THE VEHICLE TRANSPORT SECTOR,CNG(COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS) VEHICLES SHOULD BE INTRODUCED AS THEHIGHEST PRIORITY,WHILE EVS MAY BE EMPLOYED AS THE SECOND ALTERNATIVE. STEADY DEPLOYMENT OF BASE-LOAD SUPPLY SUCH AS NUCLEAR POWER SHOULD BE WELL MANAGED TO FACILITATE INTRODUCTION OF EVS. 3.IN VIEW OF JAPAN S NATIONAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION CONTROLS FOR 2010,MEASURES IN THE POWER SECTOR SHOULD BE PRIMARILY PROMOTED,SUCH AS SHIFT OF GENERATION MIX TOWARDS LESS CARBON-INTENSIVE SOURCES. MEANWHILE,THE CONTRIBUTION OF INTRODUCTION OF ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES WILL BE MARGINAL UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS INCLUDING HIGH UNIT PRICES OF SUCH VEHICLES. 4.EVS ARE POTENTIALLY EFFECTIVE FOR CONTROLLING NOX EMISSIONS. ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER MEASURES SUCH AS INTRODUCTION OF CNG VEHICLES AND REPLACEMENT OF DIESEL VEHICLES WITH GASOLINE VEHICLES MAY RECEIVE HIGHER PRIORITY,THE NECESSITY FOR EVS WILL INCREASINGLY PREVAIL IN THE LONG-RUN,AS MORE SEVERE NOX EMISSION CONTROL POLICIES ARE IMPLEMENTED,ESPECIA

報告者

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