報告書番号

Y94002

タイトル（和文）

エネルギー経済学の基礎理論総説

タイトル（英文）

REVIEW OF BASIC THEORY OF ENERGY ECONOMICS

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本研究は，エネルギー経済の分析や議論に役立つ資料を提供することを目的とし，エネルギー経済学の代表的な理論・実証研究を取り上げ，その意義と特徴を明らかにする。エネルギー経済学の代表的な文献を需要・供給・マクロ経済の３つの視点から分類し，分析の意義と特徴を整理した。主な成果は，次の３点である。（１）エネルギー需要の分析は，所得と価格の影響を中心に行われてきた。所得の影響はＧＤＰ弾力性（需要とＧＤＰの変化率の比）を指標に用いて分析されており，先進国におけるＧＤＰ弾力性は０．７から０．９の範囲にあり長期的には１に漸近する，との結果が報告されているが，価格の動向に応じてエネルギーと資本・労働等との代替が生じる可能性があるため，この結果には疑問が残る。しかし，エネルギーと資本が代替的であるか否かについては一致した見解が得られていない。（２）エネルギー供給に関する分析の主要なテーマは，石油価格

概要 （英文）

ENERGY ECONOMICS IN EXPECTED TO PLAY A GREATROLE IN MITIGATING GLOBAL CONCERNS ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVINGENERGY EFFICIENCY. TO DATE,THERE IS EXTENSIVE LITERATURE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY ECONOMICS ABROAD,BUT IT HAS DRAWN LITTLE ATTENTION IN JAPAN. TO PROVIDE A GUIDE FOR INVESTIGATORS,UTILITIES AND POLICY ANALYSTS IN JAPAN,THIS PAPER REVIEWS THE BASIC LITERATURE AND EXPLORES THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS REGARDING ENERGY ECONOMICS. THE FOLLOWINGS ARE THE MAIN FINDINGS OF THE REVIEW. (1)THE ELASTICITY OF ENERGY DEMAND WITH RESPECT TO GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(GDP ELASTICITY IS OFTEN USED IN FORECASTING FUTURE DEMAND FOR ENERGY. PREVIOUS STUDIES INDICATE THAT GDP ELASTICITY RANGES FROM 0.7 TO 0.9 IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. THE MAJOR DRAWBACK OF THESE STUDIES IS THAT THEY IGNORE SUBSTITUTION BETWEEN ENERGY AND OTHER INPUTS. THE ELASTICITY OF ENERGY DEMAND WITH RESPECT TO ENERGY PRICES IS MEASURED TO EXAMINE THE SUBSTITUTION POSSIBLITIES BASED ON THE TRANSLOG COST FUNCTION. THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IS FOUND TO BE RESPONSIVE TO ENERGY PRICES,BUT VARIOUS EMPIRICAL RESULTS REACH DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS CONCERNING WHETHER ENERGY IS A SUBSTITUTE FOR CAPITAL. (2)THE HOTELLING RULE,WHICH IMPLIES RISING OF EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCES OVER TIME,IS A THEORETICAL BASIS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF OIL PRICES. THEORETICAL RESULTS OF THIS RULE HAVE BEEN EXAMINED UNDERDIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MARKET STRUCTURES,PRODUCTION COSTS,THE PRESENCE OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FORMS,DISCOUNT RATES,AND SO ON. BASED ON THE IMPLICATION OF THE HOTELLING RULE,OIL MARKETS ARE MODELLED BY OPTIMIZATION METHODS AND ECONOMETRICS TO PREDICT OIL PRICES IN FUTURE. MOST INVESTIGATORS SUPPORT THE VIEW OF RISING PRICES OF OIL IN THE LONG-RUN,WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HOTELLING RULE. (3)THE IMPACT OF ENERGY PRICES ON THE ECONOMY HAS BECOME AN IMPORTANT ISSUE SINCE THE OIL CRISIS IN1973. ECONOMETRIC STUDIES INDICATE THAT SHARP INCREASES IN ENERGY PRICES AFTER THE OIL CRISIS HAD SIGNIFICA

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