報告書番号

Y86005

タイトル（和文）

東北地域計量経済モデルの開発

タイトル（英文）

DEVELOPMENT OF AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR TOHOKU REGION OF JAPAN

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本報告書は，東北地域を対象にした計量経済モデルの紹介を目的としている。非製造業の基盤が脆弱な地方圏経済にとって，これまで製造業は，．所得拡大効果，雇用拡大効果を通じて，極めて重要な役割を果たしてきた。現在，わが国の製造業は，構造不足，貿易摩擦の激化，円高など多くの問題を抱え，非常に厳しいマクロ経済環境下にあるが，今後の製造業の動向は地方圏経済の将来展望にも大きな影響を与えることとなろう。本モデル開発では，製造業の業種間成長格差と地域経済の成長との関係を明示的に取り扱うため，東北地域を北部，南部，新潟の３地域に分割し，製造業３業種，非製造業２業種を内生化する計量経済モデルを構築した。本報告書では，今回開発した東北地

概要 （英文）

AFTER THE OIL CRISIS IN 1973, A GREAT DISCREPANCY IN GROWTH RATE HAS OCCURED BETWEEN REGIONAL AND NATIONAL ECONOMY IN JAPAN. ONE OF THE MAJOR CAUSES OF THIS REGIONAL ECONOMIC CHANGE IS THE EXPANSION OF THE GROWTH RATE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MATERIAL AND MACHINEINDUSTRIES, WHICH WAS YIELDED BY THE RECENT NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS. THEREFORE, IN CASE OF BUILDING A REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL, IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THE DEPENDENCE OF REGIONAL ECONOMY UPON NATIONAL ECONOMIC FACTORS, ESPECIALLY UPON THE TRENDS OF MANUFACTURES. THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY IS TO CONSTRUCT A REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL WHICH IS APPLIED TO DATA FOR TOHOKU REGION IN PERIOD 1970-1982. THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRIEPI REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR TOHOKU REGION IS THE SECOND CASE-STUDY OF THIS TYPE MODEL BUILDING AFTER THE CONSTRUCTION OF CHUGOKU REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL-VERSION I-. THIS REPORT CONSISTS OF THREE PARTS.IN THE FIRST PART, THE STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL IS STUDIED. IN THE SECOND PART, THE USAGE OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS IS STUDIED. IN THE THIRD PART, AFTER CHECKING THE FITNESS OF THE MODEL, IMPACT TESTS ARE PERFORMED UNDER THE ASSUMPTION OF 10 PERCENT INCREASE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION IN 1971 IN COMPARISON WITH THE ACTUAL LEVEL. THE RESULTS ARE SUMMARIZED IN TABLE 1.

報告者

キーワード