報告書番号

Y15012

タイトル（和文）

2015年版長期エネルギー需給見通しの検証

タイトル（英文）

A Review of "Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook"

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

エネルギーミックスを含む2030年までの長期エネルギー需給見通し（以下，「需給見通し」）が，2015年7月に閣議決定された。本報告書では，当所の2030年までの経済・エネルギー需給展望から得た知見をもとに，需給見通しの特徴を明らかにし，次期見直しに向けた課題を整理した。東日本大震災以降の日本エネルギー需給は多くの課題に直面しており，この中で3Eを達成するためには，大幅な省エネを想定せざるを得なかった点が，今回の「需給見通し」の最大の特徴である。また，想定された省エネのコストは示されておらず，当所のモデル試算によれば，電気料金の上昇率で見積もると85％に相当することがわかった。主要先進国の最新の需給見通しを整理した結果，日本同様に各国の需給シナリオにおいても，CO2排出量の削減目標の達成にあたっては，大幅な省エネに期待していることがわかった。需給見通し策定以降，原油安を始めとした様々な状況変化が生じており，次期の見直し時には，これら変化に柔軟に対応できる策定枠組みつくりも含め検討が必要である。

概要 （英文）

In this paper, we reviewed the "Long-term Energy Supply and Demand outlook" based on our original Japan's Economy and Energy outlook toward 2030."The Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook" was decided based on the following the three basic policies: (1)Energy self-sufficiency rate in 2030 should be more than 25 percent. (2)Electricity Costs in 2030 should be lower than current level in 2013. (3)Emissions target of GHG in 2030 should not be lower than that of EU and the US. In addition to them, there were also many assumptions or constraints. For example, assumed economic growth rate should be consistent to the government's macro-economic policy, the share of renewable energy should be more than 20 percent, and the share of nuclear power should be lower than that of renewable energy.
In order to satisfy the above mentioned conditions, a large amount of energy saving should be taken into account of the scenario. The assumed intensity of energy saving is as much as that after the two oil-shocks. We estimated the cost of that amount of energy saving based on our model simulation. We found that in order to achieve the energy saving target, the electricity price should be 80% higher than the business as usual case.
In addition, we reviewed the long-term energy supply and demand scenarios of some main developed countries such as the UK, the US, Italy, Germany and Australia. We found that most of the scenarios depend on a large scale of energy saving in order to achieve the GHG emissions reductions targets. The reality of those energy saving targets should be carefully considered under the low oil price environment.

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