報告書番号

Y13001

タイトル（和文）

日本経済と電力需要の短期予測 －世界経済停滞・長期金利上昇・消費税率据置のシミュレーション分析－

タイトル（英文）

A Short-term Outlook and Risk Assessments for Japanese Economy and Electricity Demand - Simulation analyses of decrease in foreign demand, rise in long-term interest rate, and maintaining consumption

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

日本経済は，円安を背景とした輸出増，株高や消費者心理改善による民間消費の増加などから昨年 11 月を底に景気回復局面にある．本稿では，こうした回復の動きが持続するかどうかを探るため，短期マクロ計量経済モデルを用いた短期予測を実施した．

その結果，13 年度の実質 GDP は前年度比 2.6 ％増，14 年度は同 0.5 ％増となると予測された．外需はこれまでの円安と世界経済の回復持続により増勢を保つ．内需は，13 年度に震災復興関連の公共投資拡大と消費税率引き上げ前の駆け込み需要により増加を維持するが，逆に 14 年度はそれらの反動減が経済を押し下げる要因となる．13 年度の販売電力量は，上記の経済環境と 12 年並みの気温を想定した場合，同 0.7 ％増，14 年度は同 0.3 ％増となる．

加えて，以下のシミュレーション分析を実施した．第 1 は，安倍政権の経済政策（アベノミクス）のうち財政金融政策の定量評価である．その景気浮揚効果は円安を中心に 13 年度の実質 GDP 成長率予測を 1.7 ％ポイント押し上げていると試算された．この結果は，対策が実施されなかった場合には 13 年度実質 GDP 予測は 0.9 ％増にとどまるということを示している．第 2 に，財政悪化懸念による長期金利の上昇や世界経済の停滞による外需の減少が顕在化した場合の経済影響を試算した．その場合には 14 年度の実質 GDP はゼロ成長あるいはマイナス成長に陥る可能性があることがわかった．

概要 （英文）

Japanese economy has gone through a phase of recovery since November 2012, driven by the pickup of foreign demand and the increase of private consumption. In this report, we forecast the Japanese economy and the electricity demand in order to clarify whether it will be able to continue the present growth over the next two years.

Japanese business condition has gone through a phase of recovery since November 2012, driven by the rise of foreign demand and the increase of private consumption. In this report, we forecast the Japanese economy and the electricity demand in order to clarify whether they will be able to continue the present growth over the next two years. According to our forecast, real GDP in fiscal 2013 will increase by 2.6% from the previous year, and that in 2014 will rise by a subdued 0.5%. The net export will keep growing due to the weak yen and continuous recovery of global economy. The domestic demand in 2013 will maintain the increasing trend due to public investment expansion related to post-disaster reconstruction and last-minute consumer spending before lifting the consumption tax rate scheduled in April 2014. On the contrary, that in 2014 will be depressed by the reactive decrease in public investment and consumer spending. Based on the above economic forecast, the electricity demand is forecasted to be of 0.7% increase in 2013 and of 0.3% increase in 2014 from the previous year, respectively.

Furthermore, we execute some sensitivity analyses. Firstly, we gave a quantitative assessment of the monetary and fiscal policies by Abe administration, `Abenomics'. We found from the result that it boosts the real GDP in 2013 by 1.7% point on a contribution basis. It proves that the forecast of real GDP growth in 2013 will become 0.9 % increase without its policy. Beyond that, we conduct the simulation analyses about the impact on the real GDP of the rise in long-term interest rate due to the increase in the risk premium of Japanese government bond and the decrease in the foreign demand due to the downturn in global economy. The results showed that there is a possibility that the real GDP growth in 2014 will become zero or negative.

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