報告書番号

Y12012

タイトル（和文）

2020年以降の温暖化対策の国際枠組み－論点の整理と新枠組みの類型の提示－

タイトル（英文）

Post-2020 International Regime for Addressing Climate Change- Issues and Possible Architectural Patterns -

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

2011年のCOP17では、2020年以降の温暖化対策の国際枠組み（以下、新枠組み）を2015年までに採択するという交渉期限が設定された。新枠組みの検討は、気候変動枠組条約（UNFCCC）の下で2012年に開始され、2013年から本格化する。そこで、本報告では、検討の本格化に備えるため、論点を整理した上で、新枠組みの類型を提示する。

概要 （英文）

The 17th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2011 decided that, by 2015, the Parties shall decide on a new climate regime applicable for 2020 onward. In order to facilitate discussion on future agreements, we have examined (1) the forecast of carbon dioxide emissions from major economies, (2) preceding studies on long-term mitigation scenarios and (3) views on future agreements the Parties expressed in 2012. We find that, (1) in 2030, China, India, and Brazil are expected to collectively emit approximately 40% of global carbon dioxide emissions, unless they adopt further mitigation measures; (2) by allowing a temporal overshoot of the temperature and large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal in the latter half of this century, some recent studies show scenarios which have a higher range of emissions levels for the first half of the century but still contain the temperature increase beyond pre-industrial level within approximately two degrees Celsius; and (3) Parties have divergent views on whether the dichotomy of developed and developing countries should be maintained or revised and whether Parties' mitigation efforts should be determined internationally or domestically. Synthesizing these findings, we present four architectural patterns of the post-2020 climate regime, namely "Kyoto Plus," "Cancun Plus," "Technological Cooperation among Like-minded Countries," and "Risk Management."

報告者

キーワード