報告書番号

Y10007

タイトル（和文）

環境政策評価のための地域間社会会計行列の開発

タイトル（英文）

Compilation of Interregional Energy SAM of Japan for Environmental Tax Policy Evaluation

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

地球温暖化対策が各県経済に与える影響を分析するためには，(1)各種のエネルギー投入量と環境負荷との関係，(2)基準時点におけるエネルギー投入量とエネルギー税の対応，(3)地域間の財・サービスの取引及び所得移転の３点が記述されている社会会計行列（Social Accounting Matrix：SAM）が不可欠となるが，このようなデータは開発・公表されてない．本研究は既開発の「47都道府県産業連関表（2000年）」及び「都道府県別エネルギーデータ（2000年）」と整合性を持った商品取引・所得循環のデータである「地域間社会会計行列（2000年）：SAM」を構築した．開発したSAM の乗数分析によって，技術構造及び需要構造が一定の元で，環境税の導入が産業の生産コスト及び家計の生計費の上昇に与える効果を計測することができる．各県における生産者価格の上昇率は最も大きい沖縄（0.557％）から香川（0.094％）まで広く分布する．これは，県別のエネルギー価格上昇率が技術構造と商品構成の違いを反映して大きく異なっていることと，エネルギーの投入割合の高い産業が限られた地域に集中しているたことが要因である．一方，ある県の生産者価格の上昇は地域間交易を通じて多くの地域の消費財価格に広く波及していくため，各県における生計費指数（課税前と同量の消費を行うために必要な消費金額）の上昇率は生産者価格と比較すると県ごとの差異が小さく，千葉（0.15％）から山梨（0.07％）の間に分布する．

概要 （英文）

Despite many studies contributing to the modification of a social accounting matrix (SAM) for the environmental analyses, the currently available databases are still inadequate due to the following shortcomings. Firstly, although associating each type of pollution with a particular input is preferable, a common procedure in the SAM is to relate pollution to level of production outputs. Secondly, in case that there exist the environmental taxes in the base-run economy, those taxes do not correspond to the amount of pollutions discharged along the technological process of production activities. Moreover, due to a vast variety in the production structure and consumption preference among regions in the economy, it is desirable to analyze the linkages between economic systems and the spillover and possible feedback effects that one region may have on another. The interregional flows within one consistent accounting system are also required to segregate the intra-regional direct effects from the inter-regional cross effects.
The main objective of this paper is, therefore, to develop the interregional energy SAM of Japan that consistently reflects all the flows of goods, services and income between the agents of the model. The compiled database must be consistent with the CRIEPI 47-pref MRIO of Japan in order to be applied an integral part of the benchmark data set for evaluating environmental tax policies.
The database has 14 types of energy inputs shown in the physical units and is compiled to reflect the interregional energy input-output structure of all 47 prefectures in Japan. To be applied for the environmental tax policy evaluation, our compiled SAM also integrates the tax and subsidy structure consistent with a government balance sheet.
The accounting and price multipliers are calculated to check the validity of our compiled SAM and to reveal the interregional relationships between output, factor demands and household income directly suggested by the structure of a social accounting matrix. Finally, a simple simulation of the environment tax scheme is conducted to verify the price transmission mechanisms in economies with institutional rigidities as well as to evaluate the direct and indirect impacts on the sectoral production cost and the prefectural cost-of-living of households.
The simulation results reveal that, subjected to the initial exogenous cost-increasing injection due to energy-related tax increment amounted to 618.3 billion yen, the total increase in production costs all over Japan is augmented to 2.627 trillion yen, where the 24.1% of total production costs or 634.1 billion yen are the total effect on national welfare of household. Price transmission rates of tax burden from production sectors to households vastly vary across prefectures in Japan by ranging from 12.7% in Okayama to 43.3% in Nara, depending on the consumption structure of households. On the prefectural basis, the impacts of tax imposition on households show a lower dispersion than those on production sectors.

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