報告書番号

Y08039

タイトル（和文）

国内電気事業者の配当決定要因に関する基礎検討

タイトル（英文）

A Fundamental Analysis on the Determinants of Dividend Policies in Japanese Power Utilities

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

電気事業の配当決定要因に関しては先行研究が豊富でなく，コーポレート・ファイナンス論でも確立された理論がまだない。そこで本研究では，この分野の基礎的検討として，国内電気事業者の配当実績データを用いて，次の点について検討した。
１）配当総額に対し既存仮説の枠組みを適用した場合，どの財務変数が電気事業の配当決定において重要か。またコーポレート・ファイナンス論の既存仮説を当てはめたとき，どの財務変数がそれをよく説明するか。
２）減配・増配など1株あたり配当額に変化を与える要因として，営業キャッシュフローと投資キャッシュフローはどの程度の影響を持っているか。またそれは，1970年代の原油高の時代から自由化期の現在に至り，どのように変遷したか。

概要 （英文）

In this report, fundamental features of dividend policies in Japanese electric utilities are analyzed. In the past research of dividend policies, it was not necessarily clear as to what cash flow components play any role in determining the dividend levels for electric utilities. Among the several hypothesis debated so far, we chose to test on Japanese electric utilities Free Cash Flow (FCF) hypothesis, Pecking Order (PO) hypothesis and Life Cycle (LC) hypothesis. Using panel data analysis for the period from year 1970 through year 2007, we found that LC hypothesis generally applies in all year range, while FCF and PO hypotheses apply in the sense that growth opportunity necessitates more cash to be invested, tightening the total cash surplus. We also chose from among the tested variables, the most influential variables on the dividend level to be operating income, capital expenditures and debt ratio. We estimated the magnitude of influences, as well as the inter-temporal changes of those, from those variables on the change decision probabilities of the per-share dividend levels. As we compared the variations for the three periods (oil shock era of 70's, stable dividend era of 80 and 90's, and liberalized dividend era of after '99), we found that in the liberalized era compared to the oil shock era, thanks to the recent effort to decrease the gross debt level, the sensitivity on the dividend of operating income and that of debt ratio have significantly neutralized, confirming the fact that the balance sheet became more sturdy against the leveraged cash requirements. The sensitivity of capital expenditures, however, became relatively larger, implying the increase in the capital expenditures might put more pressures on the current dividend levels than it did in the oil shock era.

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