報告書番号

Y05013

タイトル（和文）

原油価格高騰の産業別物価への影響 -2002年以降高騰期と石油危機時との比較分析-

タイトル（英文）

Influence of Soaring Oil Prices on the Japanese Industrial Prices‐Comparative Analysis of Soaring Oil Price Period since 2002 and Oil Crisis Period‐

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

産業連関価格モデルを開発し、3度の原油高騰期を対象に、原油価格を中心とする輸入物価および賃金の産業別物価への総合的影響を分析した。主な結果は以下の通り。①第一次石油危機時では、生産者価格は全産業平均37.3％上昇した（モデルの理論値）。そのうち賃金上昇による影響（寄与度）が25.2％と圧倒的に大きい。②第二次石油危機時では、生産者価格は全産業平均19.1％上昇した。そのうち賃金上昇の影響は8.0％、石油・石炭・天然ガス輸入物価上昇の影響は9.2％である。③今回の原油高騰期では、国内生産者価格は全産業平均1.9％上昇にとどまっている。そのうち石油・石炭・天然ガス輸入物価上昇の影響は1.5％と小幅である。賃金は下落し物価上昇を抑えている。④今回高騰期では第二次石油危機時と比べて、生産者価格上昇率は17.2％低い。その要因では、賃金上昇率、石油・石炭・天然ガスおよびその他輸入物価上昇率が低かったことに加えて、産業構造の変化も物価上昇を抑制している。

概要 （英文）

Japanese economy had experienced two periods of soaring oil-price, the first had occurred in 1973-1974, and the second had occurred in 1979-1980. These periods are called Oil-Crises because the soaring oil price had inflate the prices of other domestic goods and services through inter-industrial transactions, and the change in relative prices had resulted the serious disturbance in market equilibrium. From the beginning of 2002, the oil price has been escalating from about $20/barrel to around $50/barrel due to the worldwide strong demand for energy, and the soaring oil price is supposed to change the relative prices in Japanese market. Therefore the escalating oil price may have brought the third oil-crisis into Japanese economy.We compared the impact of the high oil prices on the Japanese producer price by sector in two oil-crises and the current situation using the decomposition techniques of input-output analysis. The major findings obtained from our hypothetical analysis are as follows; (1) In the first oil crisis, the domestic-producer price rose 37.3% in average. The major factor of this inflation was the inflation in wages, and the contribution of the wages hike was 25.2%. Almost 70% of the increase in the average price was explained by the rise of the wages.(2) In the second oil crisis, the domestic-producer price rose 19.1% in average. The major factor of the increase in average price was the rise of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, and their contribution were 9.0%. The contribution of the increase in wages was down to 8.0%, which explained 40% of the rise in the average price.(3) In the current period of soaring oil price, the inflation of the average price is 1.9%. The major factor that affects the moderate increase in the average price is the oil, coal, and natural gas import prices, and their contribution is 1.5%. The wages contribute 0.2%, which explains only 10% of the rise in average price.(4) Our analysis shows that the inflation of the average producer price is heavily depend on the change in wages, which is determined in labor market.

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