報告書番号

Y05004

タイトル（和文）

複数制度化する温暖化防止の国際枠組み -京都議定書、G8サミット、アジア太平洋パートナーシップの並存状況の分析-

タイトル（英文）

Parallel Tracks for Global Climate Change Regime: Analysis on the Coexistence of UNFCCC/Kyoto, G8 and Asia Pacific Partnership

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

温暖化防止の国際枠組みが複数化してきたプロセスを分析した結果、これまでのプロセスについては、米国が複数制度化の原動力であり、その結果、UNFCCC/京都議定書、G8、アジア太平洋パートナーシップ（APP）の並存が起きたことがわかった。今後は、「UNFCCCと京都議定書」と「G8とAPP」で異なる展開を見せると予想される。前者については、その時々の政治状況によってトップダウン的に意思決定がなされるため、米国の議定書復帰が困難な状況では進展が難しく、交渉が停滞するだろう。後者については、ボトムアップ的な意思決定がなされるため、実際の経験を通じて制度が発展し、G8プロセスでは日本でサミットが主催される2008年に、APPでは各タスクフォースの短期的な成果が出揃う2008～09年頃に、更なる意思決定がなされるだろう。そのため、向こう数年間は、複数のプロセスの同時並行が継続するものと考えられる。

概要 （英文）

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the current situation, and forecast the future, of the coexistence of multiple tracks for global climate change regime: UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol, G8 process and Asia Pacific Partnership (APP). The author analyzed this situation with "regime complex theory," one of the analytical perspectives of International Relations. The hypothesis asserts that multiple institutions for a common issue will lead to four consequences: "path dependence," "forum shopping," "legal consistency," "regime development through implementation." The current situation on multiple tracks for climate protection is well interpreted as "forum shopping" as shown in the development in 2005: U.K. and Canada tried to involve U.S. by taking opportunity to host the G8 summit meeting or the UNFCCC conference to which U.S. was a member, while U.S. built a like-minded coalition with five other countries and launched APP. Assuming that the theory is applicable to the future, the author presented one plausible development path of the multiple tracks as in the following: UNFCCC/Kyoto negotiation would not get out of a stalemate because of negative attitude of U.S. On the other hand, based on practical experiences, G8 and APP would develop "technology-based and sectoral approach" in a bottom-up manner ("regime development through implementation"). Then, some countries who attempt to engage U.S. back in UNFCCC/Kyoto track, would try to import the approach developed under G8 and APP to UNFCCC/Kyoto ("path dependence") or even integrate the former tracks to the latter ("legal consistency"). It would depend largely upon the choice of the next U.S. administration whether the integration would occur or the current parallel tracks would prevail.

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