報告書番号

Y04018

タイトル（和文）

家庭用エネルギー機器の技術選択分析 -ヒートポンプ給湯機、コージェネレーションの中期普及シナリオ-

タイトル（英文）

Development of a Technology Choice Model for Energy Systems in the Residential Sector ―Midterm Outlook for the Market Diffusion of Heat Pump Water Heater and Co-generation Systems―

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

技術間の競合を考慮できる普及分析モデルを開発し、家庭部門における、2020年までのヒートポンプ給湯機、燃料電池やマイクロガスエンジンなどの普及量、および、エネルギー消費の変化を分析した。新規技術の単価が依然割高(2020年に50～60万円/台)で、効率に改善がみられない基本ケースにおいて、2020年の普及量は、ヒートポンプ給湯機が1210万台、CGSが52万台(うち燃料電池が18万台)と推定され、2010年については目標を下回る。このとき、新規技術が導入されない場合と比べ、2020年における家庭部門の一次エネルギー供給量で4.6％(最終エネルギー消費量で5.5％)の省エネルギー効果があることが示された。また、機器の効率向上や価格低減により、新規技術の導入量は増加し、省エネルギー効果も大きくなることを明らかにした。

概要 （英文）

This paper presents the mid-term prospects of the share of household energy appliances and of the energy consumption of the residential sector in Japan. In recent years new household energy appliances have been introduced into the market successively. Some of the noteworthy technologies are: the electric CO2 heat pump (HP) water heater that supplies hot water with high coefficient of performance of more than 4, and the fuel cell powered or the micro gas engine powered co-generation (CGS) systems that supply electricity and heat simultaneously. Japanese government has set ambitious goals to introduce 5.2 million units of HP water heaters and 1.2 million units of fuel cells for the residential sector by 2010, when the total number of households is estimated to be around 50 million. In order to evaluate the possible effects these technology developments might have on energy consumption, we developed an analytical model to describe the diffusion process of various energy appliances. Assumed technology options include conventional appliances, and their market potentials are mutually dependent on each other. Moreover, having considered the regional and household differences in the energy demand and in the current situation of energy use, we applied an optimal model to estimate the time at which the market penetration will be triggered by customers’ economic choice. The result of BAU (business as usual) case shows that the amount of new technologies installed by 2020 will be: HP water heaters of 12.1 million units, and CGSs of 0.5 million units including fuel cells of 0.2 million units. These changes result in that the primary energy consumption will be relatively lower by 4.6% compared to the case where only the conventional technologies are available. Although the targets in 2010 will not be achieved in BAU case, the sensitivity analyses show that the accelerated energy efficiency improvement and cost reduction of HP water heaters and fuel cell powered CGSs will promote further introduction and thereby reduce 5.7%, 6.7% respectively of the primary energy supply in the residential sector in 2020 compared to the case without market diffusion of new appliances.

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