報告書番号

Y04015

タイトル（和文）

2030年までの経済・エネルギー展望 -財政再建時代の成長シナリオ-

タイトル（英文）

Outlook for the Japanese Economy and Energy Up To the Year 2030 ―Growth Scenario in the Age of Financial Reconstruction―

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

人口減少、財政危機など時代の変化を織り込み、当所の経済予測システムを活用して、2030年までの長期経済・エネルギー展望を行った。今回は、内需拡大と財政再建のテンポに応じて、低成長、中成長、高成長の３ケースを想定し展望した。成長率など、ケース間でかなりの幅が出る。①実質GDP成長率は年率0.3～1.3％となる（2000～2030年間、以下同じ）。②中成長、高成長ケースでは、将来の国家財政破たんは回避できる。③いずれのケースでも、リーディング産業は、電子機器、通信・放送、対事業所サービス、医療・保健衛生の４業種である。④一次エネルギー国内供給は年率-0.1～0.4％と低い伸びにとどまる。⑤系統電力需要は、電力シフトなどを反映して、年率0.3～0.9％の伸びとなる。⑥CO2排出量については、政府目標の達成には、中成長、高成長ケースでは、2010年で1,650～2,150万トンの削減が必要である。

概要 （英文）

Two years ago, we carried out the long-term outlook for the Japanese economy and energy up to the year 2025 by using the CRIEPI long-term forecasting system. In order to perform analysis of a global warming issue and an aged society and so forth, we have extended the prediction target year to five-year after, and carried out the outlook based on three scenarios (low/medium/high economic growth cases). The major results are as follows: The average annual growth rate of real GDP will remain in 0.3～1.3% (low growth case～high growth case) of low level during 2000～2030 due to the consumption tax increase and the population decrease and so forth. The rate of an outstanding government bond to nominal GDP will reach 129～74% in the year 2030. In which case, the growth of an electric device, communication and broadcast, business services (software development etc.), and medical care services is the highest. In medium and high growth cases, these 4 type of industry will serve as an average of 3～4% of growth, and play a role of a leading industry. With continuing globalization, the foreign production ratio of manufacturing sector will reach 25% in 2030. The share of electric machinery in the total exports will go up even to 44～46% in 2030. The supply of domestic primary energy will remain in an annual rate of -0.1%～0.4% during 2000～2030. However, the demand for grid electricity will grow constantly annually by 0.3～0.9%. The share of electricity in primary energy demand will increase and reach 49～50% in 2030. CO2 emissions in 2010 increase by 1.3～7.5% compared with the 1990 fiscal year. Reduction of CO2 emissions of 16.5～21.5 million tons of carbon is required in medium and high growth cases.

報告者

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