報告書番号

Y04

タイトル（和文）

2025年までの経済・エネルギーの長期展望 -持続的成長への途を求めて-

タイトル（英文）

The Long-Term Outlook for the Japanese Economy and Energy : Towards the Revival of Sustained Growth

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

少子高齢化の進展、デフレ長期化など最近の情勢変化を踏まえて、2025年までの長期展望を行なった。その主な結果は以下の通りである。①膨大な財政赤字が続き、将来、国の財政が破たんする公算が大きく、消費税増税を柱とする緊縮型の財政再建が必要となる。②緊縮財政、人口減少などの影響で、実質GDP成長率は2000～2025年間では年率1％の低い水準にとどまる。③低成長の下でもIT関連産業、高齢化対応産業は成長する。④企業のグローバル化で、製造業の海外生産比率は2025年に23％にまで上昇する。⑤少子高齢化のテンポは地方圏で早く、地方圏の成長率は首都圏、中部、関西と比べてやや低い伸びとなる。⑥国際石油価格は2025年では43ドル/バレルにまで上昇する。⑦エネルギー需要が横這いとなる中で電力需要は1％程度の伸びとなる。⑧CO2 排出量は緩やかな減少傾向となるものの2010年では1990年比で4％増となる。

概要 （英文）

This report presents the results of comprehensive outlook for the Japanese economy and energy towards the year 2025 by using the CRIEPI long-term forecasting system. The major results are as follows: The projected average annual growth rate of real GDP is 1.0% during 2000-2025 due to the prolonged deflation, tighter government budgets and the population decrease. In such lower economic growth, the current major macroeconomic imbalances in Japan -- large deflation gaps, higher unemployment, increasing massive government debts, and large current balance surplus will persist for rather long-time until around 2015. In particular, the central government debts will continue to increase and it will be stabilized only by increasing taxes such as the successive increase in consumption tax by 1% point per year from 2006 until 2015, with the peak in 2011 of the government debt-to-GDP ratio of 130%. With the successive innovation and diffusion of information technology and the rapid advent of ageing society, IT-related businesses and health, medical care services will grow faster in terms of both output and employment. The GDP share of tertiary sector will rise to 63% in the year 2025 mainly by the growth of these sectors. With continuing globalization, the foreign production ratio of manufacturing sector will reach 23%. Slower growth, population decrease and lower public investment will restrain the growth of several regions of the economy. In our prospects, the GRP(Gross Regional Product) of Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kita-Kanto, Hokuriku, Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu will grow lower than the average GRP growth rate. The demand for primary energy will exhibit almost zero growth during 2000-2025. However, the demand for electricity will grow constantly annually by 1%. The share of electricity in primary energy demand will increase and reach 48% in the year 2025. The commercial sector is the major contributor to this surge. CO2 emissions in the year 2010 will be 299 million tons of carbon, which are about 104% of their 1990 level. More efforts would be necessary to preserve the Japanese commitment of emission level of greenhouse effect gases in COP3.

報告者

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