報告書番号

Y03016

タイトル（和文）

財政危機のシミュレーション分析

タイトル（英文）

Simulation Analysis of Japanese Fiscal Failure

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

マクロ経済モデルと財政モデルによるシミュレーションにより以下を明らかにした。a.デフレの影響：1998年以降のデフレの影響で、2003年の国債残高対名目GDP比は21％ポイントも上昇した。b.財政破たんの発生条件と脱出の方策:①内需促進も財政再建も実施しない場合、実質GDP成長率（2000～2025年間年率）は0.7％にとどまり、国債残高対名目GDP比は2025年には215％に達し、財政破たん状態に近づく。②財政再建だけを実施する場合、破たん回避のためには消費税率を2020年頃までに30％に引き上げる必要がある。このとき実質成長率はほぼ0％となり、国民負担率は現在の43％が2025年には70％を超える。③内需促進と財政再建をともに実施すれば、財政危機を乗り越えられる。実質成長率は1.0％、国債残高対名目GDP比率は2011年頃ピークを打ち、2025年には100％にまで低下する。

概要 （英文）

In this paper, the simulation analysis was done by using our macro econometric model and fiscal model. Our main results are as follows.1. Influence of deflation on public finance: The deflation exerted the bad influence on Japanese economy, and amplified fiscal deteriorations. The ratio of outstanding government bond to nominal GDP in 2003 greatly rose 21% point by the influence of the deflation.2. Growth scenarios under the fiscal constraint(1) Case of fiscal crisis: The public finance of Japan will fall into the state of failure in the future when neither domestic demand promotion policy (bringing up the new industry, etc) nor fiscal reconstruction policy are executed. The real GDP growth rate (average growth rate of 2000 to 2025) remains 0.7 percent. As fiscal deficit continues, the outstanding national bond increases progressively and reaches 1.4 trillion yen, 215 percent compared with nominal GDP, in the year 2025.(2) Case of fiscal reconstruction policy: Executing a fiscal reconstruction policy alone without a domestic demand promotion policy, it is almost impossible to get over the current fiscal crisis. It is necessary to raise the consumption tax rate up to 30 percent or more to change the ratio of outstanding government bond to nominal GDP to the downward trend by the year 2025.(3) Case of sustainable growth: If the domestic demand promotion policy and the fiscal reconstruction policy are both executed, the fiscal crisis is got over. When private consumption will be expanded by domestic demand promotion policy, and the consumption tax rate will be raised to 15 percent by the year 2015, the ratio of outstanding government bond to nominal GDP changes to the declining trend after peaking in the year 2015, and it falls into 100 percent in the year 2025. The real GDP growth rate (average growth rate of 2000 to 2025) becomes 1 percent.

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