報告書番号

Y03

タイトル（和文）

経済社会・エネルギーの中期展望 '98 - －21世紀初頭の日本経済をどうみるか－-

タイトル（英文）

Comprehensive Report on 1998 Medium-Term Outlook for the Japanese Economy, Society and Energy

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

日本経済の構造変化を踏まえ、2010年までの経済・エネルギー需給を展望した。その主な結果は次の通りである。日本経済は大変革の時代を迎えている。高齢化、財政構造改革、金融システム不安など、成長を抑制するさまざまの構造要因が複合的、波状的に日本経済を襲う。特に、財政構造改革のデフレ効果が大きい。このため、80年代の４％成長への復帰は難しく、今後は1.6％程度の低成長となる。地域別では、成長率は大都市圏の方が地方圏よりもやや高い。産業別では、電気機械、情報・通信、医療・保健衛生などが成長産業となる。エネルギー需要は0.6％の伸びと緩やかながらも増加する。これに伴い、ＣＯ2排出量も増え2010年には90年水準を14％ほど上回る。ライフスタイルの変化や電気料金の引き下げなどの影響で電力シフトが進み、電力需要は年率２％程度と堅調に推移する。このため、電源の確保や負荷平準化対策などが必要である。

概要 （英文）

Faced with great difficulties such as increasing fiscal deficits of government, globalization of industrial competition, a hollowing out of industries and a rapidly aging society, the Japanese economy is now struggling to make drastic structural reforms in many fields. To analyze the interdependency of economic activities and energy demand, we constructed the “Medium-Term Economic Forecasting System 1998”. Using the system, we analyze the Japanese economy from various aspects, from national level to regional level, and derive some policy implications to deal with the issues that we will face in the next twenty years to come. We find that there is a trade-off relationship between the economic growth and the reform of government deficit. Because it would be hard to reduce the deflationary gap whose level will be about 8～10% up to the year 2003 under the structural reform plan cutting the government deficit and achieving the debt ratio to 3% of GDP. Under the plan, the average annual growth rate of GDP up to the year 2010 will fall down to 1.6% and the deficit will be 387 trillion yen as of March 2011. Whereas expanding the government expenditure following the plan of 1994, the growth rate will be 2.5% and the deficit will be 492 trillion yen. The low level of economic growth shows us that the aftereffects of the bubble economy would be enormous. Therefore, Japan has to implement various structural adjustments in such ages of low economic growth and depopulation. Industrial structure changes to service sectors will steadily occur. The output share of tertiary industry will go up by 2% in the next twenty years due to the growth of telecommunication, broadcast, medical care industries and so forth. In this trend, Japan has to challenge to smooth move of labor forces from manufacturing to high-tech tertiary industry. The shift to electricity in energy demand will continue, with the demand for energy growing about 0.6% and the demand for electricity growing about 1.7% up to the year 2010. The future growth in demand for electricity will come mainly from the residential and commercial sectors whose demands are relatively variable compared to manufacturing sector’s demand, so utilities have to improve their load factor in annual base as well as in daily base. In 2010, CO2 emissions will increase about 14% from their 1990 level, to the equivalent of 327 million tons of carbon per year. Thus it is hard task for us to reduce the emissions even under the low growth economy. As the Japanese economy moves to a low growth, the concentration of economic activities in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area will continue, slightly enlarging the regional income disparity. However, with low economic growth of below 2%, many of the regional structural problems, such as lack of local governments’ revenue, regional economic disparities among regions, will remain unsolved.

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