報告書番号

Y02024

タイトル（和文）

二酸化炭素排出権の市場取引 -実験アプローチによる分析-

タイトル（英文）

Market Trading of CO2 Emission Allowances －Analysis Applied Experimental Approach－

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

排出権取引制度は、英国やデンマークにおいてすでに導入され、企業に温室効果ガス削減の経済的インセンティブを与える有効な手段として認識されている。温室効果ガス削減目標を持つ国や企業にとって、排出権取引により経済効果的な手段での目標達成が可能になる。最初の国際取引制度は、2005年にEUにおいて発足する見込みである。電力セクターは国家レベルでのCO2削減に重要な役割を果たすという認識があり、EU制度でもカバーされている。このような情勢から、電力業界にとって排出権取引制度への理解を深め、様々な経験を積む必要性がますます高まっている。電中研では、これまでに電力と排出権とを同時取り引きする実験制度を開発し、実験を通じていくつかの重要なインプリケーションを得た。

概要 （英文）

Emissions trading scheme, which has already been introduced in the UK and Denmark, is now considered as a powerful instrument to give economic incentives for private companies to reduce greenhouse gasses. It helps companies and possibly countries, which have their own burden to reduce greenhouse gas emission, to meet their targets in a cost-efficient way. The first trans-national emissions trading scheme is going to be launched in 2005 by EU. The energy sector is supposed to play an important role to reduce nation-wide emission of CO2, so that it is covered by the EU scheme. Therefore, it is important for power companies to gain variable experience in this new instrument. CRIEPI has developed a software to simulate electronic trading scheme of both CO2 emission allowances and electric power, and conducted several trade experiments.Outcomes of the experiments show: i) Prices of both electricity and CO2 emission allowances in the markets are highly associated with each other; ii) Prices in the trading markets appreciate / depreciate rather than fluctuate. A steep rise / fall is observed in the last year of commitment periods; iii) Financial penalty, which is connected with market prices, may spur players with over-emission to buy allowances in the market and cause price escalation in the end of commitment period; iv) The market price gives a signal to players, who make decision of plant planning and operation according to their future price expectation. Time is not enough for players to modify their expectation during the experiments, so that an initial price in the market is quite important in a sense of dominating the result of each experiment; v) Uncertainty of the other players’ behavior is one of the factors that make our experiments difficult to accomplish the CO2 emission target.

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