報告書番号

Y02017

タイトル（和文）

民生用分散型電源の普及要因分析

タイトル（英文）

Analysis of the distributed power generator's penetration into Residential and Commercial Sector.

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

自然冷媒ヒートポンプ給湯器とPEFC-CGSなど複数の新技術の技術間競合を考慮した普及分析モデルを開発した。開発したモデルを用いて小型CGSが導入される可能性のある家庭部門および700-5,000平方メートルの床面積をもつ業務用施設(事務所、店舗、ホテル、病院)を対象に分析を行った。(1) 家庭用給湯需要に対する最大普及規模は、自然冷媒給湯器が1021万kW、燃料電池CGSが916万kWと推定される。また、業務部門においてはMGT-CGSの最大普及規模が268万kW、蓄熱式空調システムは384万kWと推定される。(2) 家庭部門においてガス給湯器からPEFC-CGSまたは自然冷媒給湯器への移行需要としては、PEFC-CGSの本格的な普及は2020年以降になる。一方、自然冷媒給湯器は急激に普及が加速し,2020年頃までに電力負荷で909万ｋW相当が導入されると推定される。(3) 業務用部門においては、MGTは将来の効率改善と先導的な導入により価格水準が低下するため、2007年ごろから一般的な普及が進む。しかしながら、普及量は2020年で174万kWと、蓄熱式空調の普及規模の半分程度にとどまる。

概要 （英文）

Recently the various distributed generator (DG) technologies including high efficiency micro turbine (MT) and fuel cell have been developed. Smaller scale CHP and DG systems of which capacity ranged 1-300kW are entering markets for residential and small business customers. We were focused two kind of CGS such as PEFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cell) hot water supply for residential custuoers and micro gas turbine cogeneration system for small and medium size commercial customers. These CGSs are expected to penetrate significantly during 2010-2020. We identified the number of buildings by the usage and scale with the floor area of 700-5000 square meters as potential market for small CGS. The maximum market potential for thermal storage air-conditioning system is assumed to be about 13.5GW, and that for the micro gas turbine CGS is 80GW. The maximum spread scale over home hot-water supply demand is assumed, and that of natural refrigerant heat pump is about 9.8GW, and that of a fuel cell CGS is 3.1GW.We developed a market penetration model of new DG technologies with multi-technology competition among a heat pump system and PEFC CGS. We applied this for developed simulation model and database of targeted market to analyze the penetration of innovative technologies in 2020. MGT-CGS has advantages in energy efficiency and cost reduction due to mass production, and the market will take off around from 2007, and it will exceed 970MW in 2010. MGT will penetrate in small commercial sector and reach 7440MW in 2020 due improvement in efficiency and significant cost reduction. On the other hand, penetration of PEFC CGS will develop relatively slowly in residential market due to higher initial cost and fuel costs in Japan. We estimate economic potential market for residential PEFC systems will be 286MW in 2010 and 882MW in 2020. PEFC-CGS system will be adopted by many residential customers if gas price is discounted around 40% like a commercial CGS special discounted rate. We estimate economic potential market for residential PEFC systems with CGS gas tariff will be 1070MW in 2010 and 3300MW in 2020. This market size is relatively small compared with the government target due to technological and economical advantages of CO2 heat pump systems and competitive electricity prices.

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