報告書番号

Y01007

タイトル（和文）

環境税導入の日本経済、エネルギー需要に及ぼす影響 --長期経済予測システムによるシミュレーション分析--

タイトル（英文）

The Impacts of Imposing Environment Tax on Economy and Energy Demand in Japan- Simulation Analysis by Long-term Economic Forecasting System -

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

環境税導入の経済的影響について、長期経済予測システムを使って分析した。導入方式の違いに応じて、4つのケースを試算した。(1)所得税減税を前提とした「基準ケース」では、2010年では炭素1トン当たり33,000円が必要となる。物価上昇で、実質GDPは0.8％減少する。エネルギー産業、エネルギー多消費産業への打撃が大きい。(2)製造業の税率を半減する「減免ケース」では、非製造業の税率は基準ケースより5割も高くなり、一般物価の上昇も大きくなる。(3)税収を公共投資で還流する「公共投資ケース」では、実質GDPの減少幅は基準ケースより0.5％ほど縮小する。公共投資関連産業は大幅に増加する。(4)エネルギーの熱量に比例して課税する「エネルギー税ケース」では、税収が全ケースのうちで最も大きくなり政策効率の面で最も劣る。以上の通り、環境税にはマイナス影響があり、その仕組みの違いによって影響は大きく異なる。

概要 （英文）

This study quantitatively analyzes the economic impacts of imposing environment tax on Japanese economy and energy demand by using the long-term economic forecasting system of CRIEPI. Four cases are set according to the differences in imposing method of environment tax and returning method of tax revenue, and the impacts of environment tax in each case are analyzed. The results of the analyses are as follows: (1) In the Base Case where the reduction of income tax is assumed, very high tax (33,000 yen per t-C) becomes necessary and real GDP decreases by 0.8% (in 2010, and so forth). Energy industry and energy intensive manufactures are suffered seriously, but the impacts on service industry are limited.(2) In the Tax Relief Case where the tax rate of manufacturing industry is cut by half, 50% higher tax than in the Base Case (50,600 yen per t-C) becomes necessary. Export industry enjoys the merit of tax cut because a rise of export price is held down, but the decrease in production of other industries is slightly enlarged because the prices rise more.(3) In the Public Investment Case where the tax revenue is returned through public investment, the tax rate is 5% higher than in the Base Case (34,700 yen per t-C). The rise in prices becomes higher, however, decrease in GDP reduces by 0.5% than in the Base Case.(4) In the Energy Tax Case where tax rate is set in proportion to energy amount (energy tax), the tax rate becomes 590 yen per GJ. Tax revenue is 12.8 trillion yen and is the largest among all cases, and so energy tax is the most inferior on the efficiency aspect of policy. Compared with the Base Case, the rise of prices becomes bigger, and the decrease in real GDP also becomes bigger by 0.2.

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