報告書番号

Y00019

タイトル（和文）

21世紀初頭の財政政策の方向性を探る --政策シミュレーション分析を通して--

タイトル（英文）

Japanese Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance in the Early 21st Century- Empirical Results of the Policy Simulation -

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

昨年度実施した財政展望を見直し、政策シミュレーションを行った。主な結果は以下の通りである。(1)一般政府合計で見る限りは財政破たんの懸念はない。しかし、財政3部門のうち、中央政府（国）は、高齢化で社会保障関連費が増大するため、年間約30兆円もの財政赤字が展望期間中続き、国債残高は現在の370兆円が2025年では1,000兆円を超える。このため、現状のままでは中央政府は債務の返済（国債償還）が困難になる財政破たんに陥る恐れが強い。(2)財政破たんを回避するためのシナリオを検討するため、3つの政策シミュレーションを行った。①公共投資の大幅な削減、②消費税率の15％への引き上げ、③消費税率引き上げ+民間需要の拡大、の3ケースうち、財政破たんを回避できるのは②、③のケースである。21世紀初頭の財政政策は増税色を強めるだろう。抜本的な財政・社会保障改革と同時に新規成長産業の育成が喫緊の課題である。

概要 （英文）

Japanese public finance situation is the worst at present among the advanced countries. In this paper, we present an outlook of the Japanese pubic finance until the year 2025 by using a long-term economic forecasting system, and examine the possibility of the financial failure, the effect of the fiscal policy, and so on. The results of outlook and analysis are as follows;(1) The annual GDP growth rate in 2000-2025 will be 3.0% in nominal base and 1.5% in real base. In general government total, there is no fear of the financial failure because of the improvement of the budget deficit. But, the situation is drastically different in the sub-sectors of general government. As for the central government, the budget deficit of 30-40 trillion yen per year will continue because of increasing expenditure related to the social security due to the accelerating aging. (2) Therefore, as for the outstanding government bond, current 370 trillion yen will exceed 1,000 trillion yen in 2025, and the ratio to GDP reaches twofold. (3) We made three policy simulation experiments to examine the scenario of the financial failure avoidance; Case of the reduction of the public investment, case of the raising of the consumption tax rate, and case of the raising of consumption tax rate with expansion of private demand. It is difficult to escape financial failure by only the spending cut policy in the age when low growth continues by the arrival of the serious aged society. A radical economic structure reform, a financial, social security reform and the creation of the new industry should be carried out as soon as possible.

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