報告書番号

Y00007

タイトル（和文）

アジア経済の成長ポテンシャル -条件付収束モデルによる成長展望-

タイトル（英文）

Growth Potential of Asian Economy:Economic Perspectives with A Conditional Convergence Model

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本稿は、経済成長論の観点から、アジア経済並びに世界各地域の成長ポテンシャルを客観的かつ定量的に評価する。資本の収穫逓減や経済の基礎的・構造的条件を考慮した「条件付収束モデル」を用いた世界経済の長期展望（1998年～2025年）の結果は以下の通り。世界全体のGDP成長率は2.5％と1973～1998年間より0.5％ポイント程度低下。アジア経済の成長率は、中国が4.3％（1973～98年間は6.9％）、アジアNIES4が2.6％（同7.0％）、ASEAN4が3.9％（5.0％）となる。韓国などアジアNIESの成長が大きく減速するのは、所得水準の上昇、労働力人口の伸びの低下、輸出主導型成長の限界等によるものである。しかし、アジアが世界経済に占める比重は着実に高まり、アジア（含南アジア）のGDPは42.8％（1998年は29％）に達し世界最大の経済圏となるものと予想される。

概要 （英文）

Two or three years after the enormous shocks of currency and economic crisis, the high growth of Asian economies have apparently started again. It is now argued whether this recovery is true and the growth of this region will sustainable in the long run. Evaluation of Asian growth potential after the currency crisis is thus needed. The purpose of this paper is to forecast the long-term growth performance in Asia vis-烋-vis other major countries in the world. To do so I have employed a conditional convergence model based on the neoclassical Solow model, which was recently used in the literature of intercountry growth empirics. Though simple, this model contains the mechanism of diminishing returns of capital and the effects on growth of economic fundamentals such as investment rates, demographic changes, the openness of trade and FDI, and the degree of government intervention, inferring 党conditional convergence媒 among countries. The major results are summarised as follows. First, the estimation results of the convergence model were almost fine and the estimated speed of convergence to the steady state is roughly 1.5% per year. Second, the annual growth rate of world GDP during 1998-2025 is about 2.5% which is less than the growth record during 1973-1998, 3.1%. The GDP growth rates of major Asian countries (China, Asian NIEs4, ASEAN4) will somewhat decline compared to those attained in the past miracle growth decades mainly because of the lower growth of labour population, lower export growth and decreasing returns to capital along with economic maturity. In contrast, the growth of South Asia economies such as India will increase due to increasing investment and higher labour population growth. As a result, the GDP share of Asia (China, Asian NIEs4, ASEAN4 and South Asia) will account for about 43% of the world GDP in 2025, an economic size competing to that of the OECD region. Asia will thus stand as a major economic power in the 21st century as was expected before the currency crisis.

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