報告書番号

EY97004

タイトル（和文）

LIBERALIZATION OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY AND SECURITY OF SUPPLY

タイトル（英文）

LIBERALIZATION OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY AND SECURITY OF SUPPLY

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

＊

概要 （英文）

THIS STUDY INVESTIGATES QUESTIONS OF SECURITY OF SUPPLY IN RELATION TO THE LIBERALIZATION OF ELECTRICITY MARKETS. IT FOCUSES ON SECURITY IN PROCUREMENT OF PRIMARY FUELS, CAPACITY ENLARGEMENT OF FACILITIES TO MEET DEMAND, AND RELIABLE SUPPLY TO CUSTOMERS. THE MAIN RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: DIFFERENT DEFINITIONS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY OF FUELS. MODERN VIEWS CONSIDER RESERVES AS A FUNCTION OF PRICE. ACCORDING TO THESE VIEWS, SHORTAGES OF PRIMARY FUELS ARE UNREALISTIC WITHIN THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DECADES, EVEN IF LIBERALIZATION OF ELECTRICITY MARKETS INCREASES DEMAND FOR PRIMARY FUELS. ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT IMPACTS OF THE LIBERALIZATION OF ELECTRICITY MARKETS ON SECURITY OF SUPPLY CAN BE SEEN IN THE DASH FOR GAS. IT IS ASSUMED THAT NATURAL GAS WILL BE AVAILABLE AT LOW PRICES IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR SEVERAL YEARS TO COME AND SECURITY OF GAS SUPPLY WILL NOT CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS. GAS-FIRED POWER STATIONS WILLBE COMPETITIVE BOTH AS PROVIDERS OF PEAK-CAPACITY, AND IN THE BASE-LOAD SECTOR. THE COMPETITIVENESS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY WILL BE DECREASE IN SUCH A SITUATION. THESE CONCLUSIONS CAN BE DRAWN EITHER IN A POOL MODEL ORIN A WHEELING MODEL. COMPARED TO GAS PAST, PRICES OF OIL HAVE NOT BEENSTABLE. AFTER THE FAILURE OF OPEC S HIGH-PRICE POLICY IN THE 1970S ANDTHE FIRST HALF OF THE 1980S, OIL PRICES HAVE DECREASED SHARPLY ALMOST REACHEING 1973 PRICES IN REAL TERMS. AS EXPERIENCE SHOWS, THE PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND IS MUCH HIGHER IN THE LONG-RUN THAN IN THE SHORT-RUN.LOWER PRICES MAY LEAD TO HIGHER CONSUMPTION OF OIL AND MIGHT ACCORDINGLY INCREASE OPEC S PRODUCTION SHARE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A RENAISSANCE OF OPEC S MARKET POWER. CONCERNING THE IMPACT OF LIBERALIZATION ON INVESTMENTS IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THE MARKET IS SUPPOSED TOPROVIDE A COORDINATIVE FUNCTION. AS A PERFECT MARKET WILL NOT EVOLVE, INVESTMENT PLANS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY COORDINATED. HOWEVER, INCREASED AWARENESS OF ASSOCIATED RISKS WILL F

報告者

キーワード