報告書番号

EY87003

タイトル（和文）

LONG-TERM PROSPECTS OF THE WORLD OIL MARKET-EXPERIMENTS WITH THE CRIEPI WORLD ENERGY MODEL-

タイトル（英文）

LONG-TERM PROSPECTS OF THE WORLD OIL MARKET-EXPERIMENTS WITH THE CRIEPI WORLD ENERGY MODEL-

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

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概要 （英文）

THIS PAPER ATTEMPTS TO EXAMINE THE RECENT CHANGES OF THE WORLD MARKET CONDITIONS OF CRUDE OIL,AND INTERPRET THEM INTHE ECONOMIC POINT OF VIEW,USING THE CRIEPI WORLD ENERGY MODEL. AT FIRST,THE RELATIONS BETWEEN OPEC S PRODUCTION BEHAVIOR AND CHANGES OF THE WORLD MARKET CONDITIONS IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1980S ARE EXAMINED. AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE LONG-TERM CHANGES OF THE MARKET CONDITIONS ON THEOPEC S CAPABILITY AS A CARTEL ARE ANALYSED. THEN,LONG-TERM PROJECTIONSOF THE WORLD OIL MARKET ARE MADE UNDER SOME ASSUMPTIONS ON THE OPEC S PRODUCTION UNTIL 2000. IN THE BASE CASE,WHERE OPEC PERFORMS RELATIVELY WEEK CONTROL ON ITS PRODUCTION,THE NOMINAL PRICE OF CRUDE OIL (F.O.B.PRICE OF ALABIAN LIGHT) WILL REMAIN AT THE LEVEL AROUND 17 DOIIAR/BBL IN THE 1980S,START INCREASING AROUND 1990,AND BE ON A SHARP RISE IN THE LATE 1990S AS THE MARKET BECOMES TIGHT,REACHING 37 DOLLAR/BBL IN 2000. INTHE ALTERNATIVE CASE WHERE THE OPEC S PRODUCTION REMAINS LOWER THAN THE BASE CASE,THE OIL PRICE WILL MOVE IN THE HIGHER PATH THAN IN THE BASECASE. THE PRICE REACHES 45 DOLLAR/BBL IN 2000. THE RELATIVELY HIGH PRICE OF OIL WILL BRING THE SMALLER DEMAND FOR OIL IN THE WORLD AND THE LATGER SUPPLY OF NON-OPEC OIL,AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SMALLER SHARE OF OPEC,COMPARED WITH THE BASE CASE.

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