報告書番号

N05036

タイトル（和文）

新潟県中越地震によるライフライン途絶の地域産業への影響調査

タイトル（英文）

Economic Impacts Survey of Lifeline Disruptions to Local Companies after the 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

22004年10月23日に発生した新潟県中越地震は，道路，電力，水道，ガスなどのライフライン施設に多大な被害をもたらし，地震発生後の住民生活や企業活動にも大きな影響を与えた．地域全体で発生する被害を軽減するためには，このようなライフライン施設の被害がもたらす生活や経済への被害波及構造を解明することが重要となっている．そこで，本調査報告では，新潟県中越地域に立地する847企業へのアンケートに基づき，ライフライン途絶による操業率や在庫への影響，ライフライン途絶以外の経済被害発生要因との比較，迂回ルート利用などの各企業の減災行動に焦点をあて，経済被害の発生構造を分析した．各ライフラインが1日途絶した際の産業分類別の操業率に関しては，筆者らが2003年に愛知・静岡県に立地する企業を対象に調査したライフライン途絶時の操業率の予測結果との間に高い相関があることが示された．

概要 （英文）

The 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake, occurred in the central mountainous part of Niigata Prefecture on October 23rd, brought about massive damages to the lifeline systems (e.g. Electricity, water, gas, sewage, telecommunication, transportation). Transportation systems weretotally collapsed, which became the main delay reason of other lifelines recoveries. Clarifying the loss generation mechanism caused by these lifeline disruptions is necessary in order to enhance the economic loss estimation method. This paper summarizes the economic survey results focusing on the impacts of lifeline disruptions. Based on the 847 replies from firms located in the affected area, loss generation mechanism induced by lifelines disruptions are analyzed. Analysis includes influences on production and inventories, comparison of impacts on production by lifeline disruption and other causes, and mitigation measures such as detouring under road network damages.For analyzing the influences on production, the lifeline resiliency factors, which are defined as the remaining amount of production under a lifeline system disruption and has been used for the value of coefficients in loss estimation economic model, is estimated. It is shown that obtained resiliency factors are correlated with the resiliency factors obtained from the previous surveys conducted by authors in Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures in 2003. Lifeline resiliency factors in Aichi and Shizuoka are estimated based on the firms, most of which did not experience the long-term lifeline disruptions such as the firms in Niigata. The estimated resiliency factor based on the disaster-experienced firms guarantees the reliability of the results in Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures.

報告者

キーワード