報告書番号

N05018

タイトル（和文）

水力土木構造物の保全履歴分析法の提案 -ダム洪水吐ゲートの不具合発生確率評価-

タイトル（英文）

Proposal of an analysis method for the maintenance history data of hydropower civil engineering structure－Defect probability evaluation of dam spillway gate－

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本論は，洪水吐きゲートの経年とその不具合発生確率を関連づけるモデルを構築するために，保全履歴と経年劣化特性との関係を統計的な観点から分析する手法を提案する．洪水吐きゲートの場合，目視による点検では劣化状態を明確にできない場合も少なくなく，構成設備に発生する不具合の多くは，その発生メカニズムが明確になっているわけではない．このため，保全作業の要否の判断に迷うことが多く，不具合発生と経年との関係をモデル化することが必要とされている．本論では，洪水吐きゲートの保全履歴データをもとに，①不具合発生頻度と理論確率分布との適合性，②不具合発生確率を評価する際の標本データの集約単位，③不確実要因が不具合発生確率に与える影響，および④不具合発生確率評価の不確実性の程度を定量評価する手法を提案し，実際の保全履歴データに適用した結果を述べる．

概要 （英文）

This report presents an analysis method for the maintenance history data of hydropower civil engineering structure. As for the spillway gate, in order to determine the maintenance actions including repair, renewal and painting, its many components are visually inspected based on the original guideline of each company. However, it is usually difficult to quantitatively evaluate their deterioration conditions by means of the visual inspection. Furthermore, there are few defect modes which are clarified their deterioration mechanism. Therefore, in order to make an appropriate decision for their maintenance works, it is necessary to evaluate the defect probability of the spillway gate corresponding to its age. On the basis of the maintenance history data, the proposed method enables us to quantitatively analyze (1) the applicability of the theoretical probability distribution to the observed defect frequency, (2) data consolidating unit for the defect probability evaluation, (3) the effect of the model uncertainty, (4) uncertainty level of the defect probability evaluation. The proposed method is applied to 902 maintenance history data of actual spillway gates located in three actual power companies to evaluate their defect probabilities considering the above point of views.

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