報告書番号

N05007

タイトル（和文）

性能指標に基づく電力流通設備の防災投資戦略

タイトル（英文）

Disaster mitigation investment strategy for electric power transmission facilities based on performance indices

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

本論は，電力流通設備のうち主に変電設備を対象として，地震リスク下での合理的な防災投資戦略の策定を支援する評価指標を提案することを目的とする.変電設備の耐震設計基準は，技術革新によりしばしば改定される.そのたびに現行基準に準拠するようにすべての設備を更新することは，その数の膨大さから経済的にも困難な作業となる.このため，本論で提案された手法は，4つの性能指標をもとに，実務者の要求や評価に必要なデータ量に応じて補強・更新といったアップグレードすべき設備を特定し，その優先順位を決定できる．適用事例として，試験評価地域に提案手法が適用され，主に費用対効果の観点から手法の特徴を例示する.結果として，実用的な観点から，提案指標の有用性を提示する．

概要 （英文）

This paper presents an upgrade strategy for electirc power transmission facilities which mainly focuses on substation equipment under seismic risk. In Japan, existing old equipment does not often meet the present seismic design standards and the seismic damage is concentrated on such old equipment．This problem is widely recognized as a typical feature of developing nations. The proposed method helps managerial decisions pertaining to the prioritizing of upgrading the huge number of existing equipment. In order to prioritize the equipment to be upgraded, practitioners have discussed it from various points of view including earthquake resistant equipment, system performance and cost effectiveness. Thus, the proposed method consists of following four different performance indices to quantitatively evaluate these factors. Index1 = deterministic proof stress evaluation index (level 1) Index2 = stochastic proof stress evaluation index (level 2) Index3 = stochastic system performance index (level 3) Index4 = cost evaluation index (level 4) For numerical examples, the proposed method is applied to a hypothetical power system to discuss the advantage and disadvantage of the proposed four performance indices from the pragmatic upgrade point of view. The pieces of equipment for recommended upgrade are compared based on four performance indices. On the basis of the level 4 evaluation, (1) the sensitivity analysis is performed to clarify the relationship among the reasonable upgrade cost, the expected damage cost and the annual occurrence probability of an earthquake. As a result, it is illustrated that level 4 allows us to identify the occurrence probability of the earthquake scenario such that an equipment upgrade is needed to minimize the expected total cost.

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