報告書番号

581010

タイトル（和文）

昭和５５年度電力需要停滞の分析

タイトル（英文）

ANALYSIS OF DECREASE OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

概要 （図表や脚注は「報告書全文」に掲載しております）

昭和５５年度における電力需要の落ち込みは，第１次石油危機直後の昭和４９年度に次いで２度目のものであった。今回の電力需要減退については，国民総生産との乖離という初めての現象をもたらしたが，これらの分析のため，次の３つの作業仮説を設定した。１．電気料金値上げ２．涼夏長雨……気象条件３．大口産業停滞これらの作業仮説に基づいて分析を進めるため，契約種別々に需要関数を計測し，所得・生産効果，価格効果，気温効果を推計した。

概要 （英文）

ALTHOUGH THE GROWTH RATE OF GNP INCREASED INFISCAL YEAR 1980,TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION DURING THE YEAR RECORDED SOME DECREASE.BECAUSE OF THE RISE OF ELECTRICITY RATES AND THE LOWER TEMPERATURE IN SUMMER SEASON.LN FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION,IT IS IMPORTANT TO FIND WHETHER THIS DECREASE WAS CAUSED BY TEMPORARY FACTORS OR BY STRUCTURAL CHANGES INELECTRICITY DEMAND. THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY IS TO INQUIRE INTO THE CAUSES OF THE DECREASE.FOR THIS PURPOSE,WEESTIMATED ELECTRICITY DEMAND FUNCTION BY CONTRACT CATEGORIES AND EXAMINED QUANTITATIVELY THE EFFECTS OF THE RISE OF ELECTRICITY RATES,THE TEMPERATURE IN SUMMER AND OTHER FACTORS ON THE DECREASE OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND. WE CONCLUDED THAT THE MAJOR CAUSE FOR THE DECREASE WAS THE RISE OFELECTRICITY RATES.IT WAS ASSUMED THAT TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION WOULDN T HAVE EXCEEDED THAT OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR,EVEN IF THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE HAD BEEN AVERAGE. OUR NEXT SUBJECT WILL BE TO BUILD A MODEL WHICH PLACES EMPHASIS ON THE INTERRELATION BETWEEN ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE.

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