Calculation of Background Lifetime Risk of Cancer Mortality in Japan

27th November 2014 Authors: Haruyuki Ogino and Takatoshi Hattori (Radiation Safety Research Center, Nuclear Technology Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry) Journal: Japanese Journal of Health Physics, Vol. 49, No. 4, 2014 (in press), accepted on 24 October 2014. Japan Science and Technology Information Aggregator: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/jhps This study was designed to calculate the background lifetime risk of cancer mortality in Japan. The mortality and population data obtained from national surveys for the vital statistics and population census in 2010 are stratified at 5-year age intervals of 0-4, 5-9, ..., 80-84, with a final open interval of 85+ for use in a life table. Fig. 1 shows the results of the background lifetime risk of cancer mortality in Japan as of 2010. It was found that the gender-averaged background lifetime risk of cancer mortality ranges from 23.7% to 28.3% among 47 prefectures, and the arithmetic mean was calculated to be 25.4%. It is important to consider the incremental risk of cancer mortality posed by exposure to ionizing radiation (e.g., an additive lifetime risk of 0.5% at the effective dose of 100 mSv) in the context of the level of the background lifetime risk of cancer mortality of the exposed population. Fig. 1. Background lifetime risk of cancer mortality for each prefecture in Japan as of 2010